As the Florida Gators appear to have their sights on hiring Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, Gator Nation isn't exactly ready to welcome him with open arms. After whiffing on Lane Kiffin, anyone was going to be a hard sell, but Sumrall in particular has a list of concerns.
Yes, he is 42-11 as a D1 head coach, and his Tulane squad is going to play for the American Conference title with a shot of making the playoffs, but one digs deeper, there are some very real issues.
Going beyond the fact he would be another Group of Five hire from Louisiana, these are the three core concerns Gator fans have of Jon Sumrall.
Defense has been shrinking
Much like Billy Napier was an "offensive" guy, Sumrall's calling card is defense. He was a linebacker at Kentucky before he embarked on his coaching career.
On paper, his defenses at Troy were solid, but there has been an undeniable trend in Sumrall's four years as a D1 head coach:
His defenses get worse each year.
These are the national rankings his defense has had for points against each year he has been in charge:
- 2022 - 8th
- 2023 - 10th
- 2024 - 23rd
- 2025 - 51st
Keep in mind, Billy Napier was 11th in points against in 2021 while at Louisiana and 45th in points scored.
Bad team merchant
There are also some smoke and mirrors going on with Tulane since Sumrall arrived. First off, the Green Wave were a solid team when he took over in 2024. It's not like he inherited a dumpster fire that has never won before.
So keeping that in mind, Sumrall is just 2-7 against ranked opponents during his four years as a D1 head coach. His two wins were in 2022 against UTSA in the Cure Bowl, and he beat Memphis this season.
And it's not like his seven losses have been close. In his nine games against ranked opponents, the average score has been about 33-17.
AKA, the moment someone has even the slightest talent advantage he doesn't know how to overcome it.
You know who else relied on talent to beat teams rather than scheme?
Too many one-score games
Sumrall has been involved in 19 one-score games as a head coach (games decided by eight or fewer points). He is 15-4 in those games.
One might say, "Wow, he knows how to keep his poise and figure out how to win tight games."
There is value in being able to navigate close games, but it's also not a great indicator for a coach trying to move up to the Power Four level to be involved in that many close games. For a guy to have that "it" factor, he needs to be curb-stomping as many opponents as possible.
Because in time, this low margin of error style eventually catches up. Billy Napier was also great in one-score games while at Louisiana, and we know how that turned out in Gainesville.