Florida Basketball is 40 minutes away from immortality as the Gators will take on Houston in the national title game tonight at 8:50 PM. Florida enters as a 1.5-point favorite in what is expected to be a clash of styles.
Houston enters as the number-one-ranked defense in the country, but that doesn't mean that there are not areas Florida won't be able to take advantage of to try and cut down the nets.
Florida Basketball: Force Contact
There is a bit of concern that because this is a national title game, the referees are going to be a little more lenient when it comes to the contact they are going to allow. This would be in Houston's favor if the refs swallow their whistles, as the Cougars are 242nd in the country at fouls per play.
While it was just the second game of the season, if you go back to Houston's loss against Auburn, one of the reasons the Tigers were able to stage a second-half comeback was the fact that Houston had a score of players in foul trouble.
That same narrative took hold against Alabama when Houston had two guys foul out and another three guys with four fouls.
Size Inside
Houston's offense is a fascinating model of efficiency. While they are considered the top defensive team according to KenPom and most people know them for that, they are also considered a top ten offensive team by KenPom.
Houston is 1st in the country at three-point shooting, but they are 292nd at two-point shooting percentage.
And Florida will have the size advantage down low, so if Florida's rotation of bigs can hold up down low and make sure the guards don't have to help, Florida should be able to limit the damage from three.
Ball Movement
For as great as Houston's defense is, and we saw against Duke how Houston has the ability to clamp things down, they have been oddly susceptible to teams able to make an extra pass on them to score.
Teams average an assist on 58% of their made shots against Houston. That puts the Cougars at 317th in this category.
What this means for the Gators is that Houston is probably going to come in with a plan to swarm Walter Clayton Jr. and force someone else to beat them.
If he is in the zone, the good news for Florida fans is that we know Clayton is willing to find the open man when needed, and depending on how well Alex Condon plays and/or how quickly Thomas Haugh gets inserted, this could be a game where Haugh could go for 20 points if left open enough.