The numbers hint Florida is closer to a run than anyone realizes

The Gators should be favored in their next seven games
Dec 9, 2025; New York, New York, USA;  Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Dec 9, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The latest AP Poll dropped the Florida Gators even further and has the squad ranked No. 23 in the country. Sitting at 6-4, Florida already has as many losses as they did all of last season when they won the national title. The main boogie man for the Gators has been the guard play of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, and the fact that Florida can’t shoot a three to save its life.

But when one looks at the upcoming schedule, combined with some deeper analytics, the seeds are planted for the Gators to go on a run in the very near future.

Florida takes on St. Francis as non-conference play winds down

Florida will take on St. Francis at 6:30 tonight in a game that should see the bench get unloaded for the Gators. The Red Flash are awful and are ranked 361st in the KenPom computer rankings. There are only 365 total teams in the country. There is a reason why Florida is favored by 45 points in this game. St. Francis lost 89-56 last week to Radford, just give an idea of the mismatch tonight.

The schedule ahead for Florida won’t be this comically overmatched, but compared to what Florida has played to this point, there is opportunity ahead for the Gators.

Despite the 6-4 start, Florida is still ranked 13th in the KenPom index. Three of Florida’s losses (Arizona, Duke, and UConn) have come against teams in the top seven of KenPom, and the Gators had a shot inside a minute to play to beat all three of those teams. The only true black on the resume for Florida is the loss to TCU, currently 63rd in KenPom.

And beyond St. Francis, the Gators have a better KenPom ranking than all seven of their next opponents. With the SEC not being as much of a juggernaut this year compared to last, Florida won’t take on a team with a better KenPom until they face 10th-ranked Vanderbilt on January 17.

This stretch of seven games hopefully can instill some confidence in Florida, which is probably a far better team than they have gotten credit for. And if somehow, someway, they can find a way to start knocking down threes, don’t be shocked if the Gators rip off a ten-game winning streak in the very near future.

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