Selection Sunday is a little over a month away, and at this point, the Gators are trying to secure their seeding for March. Florida has seemingly played its way back into a three seed, according to most Bracketology creators, though it may be tough sledding to sneak into a two seed given some of the early-season losses.
With that in mind, we are going to look at the potential teams in Florida’s bracket if chalk holds and examine the ideal pathway for Florida in the tournament.
We are using The Bracket Matrix, which takes an aggregate of Bracketology picks, for who Florida could potentially see if they are a No. 3 seed next month.
1st Round - Troy
Potential Opponents:
- UNC Wilmington
- Troy
- North Dakota State
- East Tennessee State
If Florida is a No. 3 seed, they will get matched up with a conference champion, so upsets in conference tournaments could kick all four of these listed teams out of the NCAA Tournament.
But for arument sake, if these are the four No. 14 seeds, Troy would by far be the opponent Florida would want to match up with. The other three teams in this group are still respectable rebounding teams who could potentially slow down Florida on the glass.
Troy, on the other hand, is 243rd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.
2nd Round - BYU
Potential Opponents:
- Arkansas
- BYU
- Louisville
- Clemson
Florida has yet to play Arkansas head-to-head, so we don’t know for sure how the Gators match up. The Razorbacks do play the most up-tempo of the group, which won’t bother Florida, as we saw earlier this year against Georgia.
Florida would most want to avoid Clemson in the group for the sole fact that the Tigers would try to slow things down and create a low margin of error type of game.
Louisville and BYU have somewhat similar profiles in terms of pace and scoring, but the Cardinals have a bit more offensive punch, so we are going to pick the Cougars as Florida’s most ideal Round Two opponent.
Sweet 16 - Illinois
Potential Opponents:
- Houston
- Iowa State
- Illinois
- Nebraska
The level of difficulty gets real in a hurry, and barring an upset, the Gators will take on a No. 2 seed in the Sweet 16.
Houston would be fun for the rematch storylines, but most Gator fans also might get PTSD from the blood pressure spikes they had during the national title game. Houston’s defense is also stingy once again in 2026.
Likewise, Iowa State and Nebraska also have solid defences, and Nebraska in particular plays a low-possession type of game.
Illinois tends to play almost as slowly as Houston, but its defensive efficiency lags well behind the other three on this list. Of course, Illinois does have the number one rated KenPom offense in the country, but the fact that they don’t force turnovers, which is something Florida has struggled with at times, and the fact that the Gators beat Illinois in the preseason, makes the Illini the opponent Florida would want the most of the No. 2 seeds in the Sweet 16.
Elite Eight - UConn
Potential Opponents:
- Arizona
- Duke
- Michigan
- UConn
If Florida makes it this far, they will have to pick their poision barring an upset. Three of the four current No. 1 seeds would all be a rematch for Florida from the non-conference part of the season. Michigan would have the size to match up with Florida and can hit enough threes to make Florida’s life difficult.
Arizona also created a ton of problems for Florida, and the Gators had no answers for Koa Peat in the season opener. Even with that, Boggie Fland had a wide-open three with less than a minute left that would have tied the game.
Likewise, Florida had a lead against Duke with less than 30 seconds left before falling short.
Even though Florida had a similar shot to beat UConn and fell short, the Huskies are probably the team Florida would most want a rematch against. UConn can’t hit its free throws, commits too many fouls itself, and is just vulnerable enough on the glass for Florida to feel solid about a rematch.