SEC poll pinpoints Florida's season‑defining matchup

The SEC Preseason poll was released on Friday and the Florida Gators were picked 6th in the conference. It's not a "bad" spot for Florida, but it also almost guarantees the Gators won't make the playoffs in Billy Napier's 4th season if, in fact, they do finish 6th.

But when you squint at the poll, and look at who is predicted to finish ahead of Florida, it also reveals the one game this season that might make or break not just the season for the Gators in 2025, but also the entire Billy Napier Era in Gainesville.

Florida Gators picked 6th

Of the teams on Florida's 2025 schedule, Florida was picked ahead of Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. The Gators were picked behind Texas, Georgia, and LSU.

Let's just pretend for argument's sake that chalk holds, Florida goes 5-3 in the SEC, and beats the teams they were picked ahead of while losing to those they were picked behind.

In truth, as much as we will probably grumble about it in real time, losses to LSU on the road, Texas at home, and Georgia at a neutral site wouldn't be the worst, especially if LSU winds up being a top ten team.

However, given the position of the LSU and Texas games in the schedule, it also puts immense pressure on the Miami game on September 20.

As we know, last year, Florida came out flat and was demolished by Miami to open the 2024 season. On paper, the Hurricanes should be solid again in 2025, though Carson Beck creates a ton of variance for a squad that has still never won an ACC title.

If Florida can beat Miami on the road, and win its other non-conference games against LIU, USF, and FSU, it would have Florida at 9-3 with enough quality wins to offset the three losses, none of which would be a "bad" loss.

As much whining as Alabama did this offseason, they were going to make the playoffs at 9-3 ahead of 10-2 Miami until Clemson "stole a bid" and knocked the Crimson Tide out, so there is a pathway for the Gators to make it to the playoffs at 9-3 this season.

But if Florida loses to LSU, and then Miami, and then comes out of the bye week and loses to Texas, who knows if Napier even gets on the plane to head to College Station the following week, or if he is handed his buyout and told thank you for your time.

The Miami game holds even more weight in 2025.