The College Football Playoff committee is set to reveal their initial rankings for the 2026 season later tonight. The Gators are ranked in the AP Poll at No. 25, but the CFP rankings don’t always match what AP voters do.
So, trying to get into the head of the CFP committee, this is how we think the committee is going to rank teams, not necessarily how we would personally rank the top 25.
Projecting where Florida will rank in the CFP Top 25
Top Four With A Bye
- Georgia, 7–1
- Miami, 8–0
- Notre Dame, 7–1
- Indiana, 8–1
A lot of people seem to assume that Miami is going to be the automatic No. 1 team given they are undefeated. But if history is a guide, the committee tends to value quality wins more times than not. This is the same committee that left undefeated FSU out of the playoffs. So given that in the Jeff Sagarin rankings Georgia has three top 30 wins to Miami’s one, don’t be shocked if Georgia is No. 1.
In terms of Notre Dame and Indiana getting the other top four spots, the Fighting Irish are No. 1 in both FPI and the Sagarin rankings, and they are No. 3 in the SP+ rankings. Ohio State has better computer metrics than Indiana, but it feels like the committee will need to force feed at least one Big Ten team into the top four, and it feels like Indiana would get the benefit of the doubt.
Rest of the top 11 to make the playoffs
5. Kentucky, 7–1
6. Utah, 8–0
7. UCLA, 8–0
8. Alabama, 6–2
9. Texas, 6–2
10. Ohio State, 6–2
11. BYU, 7–1
Plenty of computer metrics could drop Kentucky, but they are No. 2 in Strength of Record and No. 8 in Strength of Schedule. And knowing the committee tends to favor the SEC, their 7-1 record will be tough to resist.
Utah and UCLA have such a low strength of schedule that we don’t see them making the top four. Texas at No. 9 feels vulnerable, but they have the head-to-head win over Ohio State. And given BYU has a win over Notre Dame, and their computer metrics are just good enough, we have them sneaking in as the last at large.
Group of Six To Make Playoffs
22. Boise State, 7–1
The Broncos have the best computer metrics of any Group of Six squad, so we see them getting the nod ahead of New Mexico.
Outside looking in
12. Ole Miss, 6–2
13. LSU, 6–2
14. Wake Forest, 7–1
15. Texas Tech, 7–1
16. Tennessee, 6–2
Ole Miss is going to be the first team out because their best win in the eyes of the committee (LSU) lags behind BYU’s best win (Notre Dame). But Ole Miss should create a blockade on LSU. Wake Forest and Texas Tech have awful strength of schedule, so they probably get leapfrogged. Tennessee is just close enough and have an intriguing final schedule where they could sneak up.
Still work to do
17. USC, 7–2
18. Missouri, 6–2
19. Iowa, 6–2
20. South Carolina, 5–3
21. Florida, 5–3
23. Houston, 6–2
24. Arizona, 6–2
25. New Mexico, 7-1
So we have Florida coming in at No. 21 tonight. That has them leapfrogging a handful of teams from the AP Top 25, but it’s in line with where most computer rankings have them. And with wins over Texas and Ole Miss, the Gators do have some more impressive wins than others.
USC, Missouri, and Iowa could all be flipped around, but we don’t envision them leaping up into the next group. South Carolina will blockade Florida at the moment. Houston and Arizona lack the high-quality win to move up much higher.
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