Predicting Florida's remaining schedule with Billy Napier's seat sizzling hot

Before the season began and the expectations for Florida football were high, the schedule was brutally hard. Now four games in, the Gators are 1-3 and the expectations have lowered significantly...and the schedule is still brutally hard.

Time waits for no one. And if the Gators are down, that just gives opponents an easier target for kicking them. So even if ESPN's FPI has Florida's projected win total at 3.8 and gives the Gators a nine percent chance of getting six wins, it's still a chance. 

Can the Gators get six wins? Maybe. It's not completely out of the question, but they are going to need a lot of breaks. 

Breaking down the October schedule (plus Georgia)

Texas (October 4)

So much has been made about Arch Manning coming into the Swamp and his uncles, etc. etc., but what's lost in this discussion is that Texas' defense has been GREAT. They are No. 2 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring defense, No. 1 in yards per play and No. 7 in third-down conversions. With the Longhorns not giving up anything on defense, how good does Arch really need to be? Florida has to score a non-offensive touchdown (maybe two) to have a chance here. I believe they will bait Arch into at least one critical mistake, but it won't be enough. Texas 21-13

at Texas A&M (October 11)

If an upset is going to happen, here's where it will happen. The Aggies gave up nothing to Auburn, but still only won by six because Marcel Reed had a pedestrian game. This is another game that will come down to turnovers and could get very messy. Eventually, the Aggies are going to lose a game they should win. Why not here? Florida pulls off the shocker, 16-13

Mississippi State (October 18)

After facing some of the toughest defenses in the country, playing Mississippi State will be a nice break. There's a lot of respect here for Jeff Lebby and what he's done in Starkville. The Gators defense will be one of the best the Bulldogs have faced and even though Mississippi State comes in off a bye, they will still be reeling after facing Texas A&M on October 4. Florida wins again 27-20

vs Georgia (November 1)

If Billy Napier is still around at this point, he'll have one more shot to knock off the Bulldogs and snap a four-game losing skid in the series for the Gators. Coming off a bye and two consecutive wins gives hope that Florida will be very game for the outdoor party. Georgia's defensive numbers are a bit distorted because of the Tennessee game, but the second half against Alabama showed more of what's expected of the Bulldogs. Florida can attack Georgia downfield with the pass game, but will they do it enough? And can the Gators coaching staff keep up with the adjustments Kirby Smart makes? Not likely. Georgia gets fifth straight,28-17

Looking ahead to November

If things go as predicted, Florida will be 3-5 going into the final third of the season. The road game against Kentucky (Nov. 8) feels like the best chance to secure that fourth win, while the road finale against Ole Miss (Nov. 15) almost feels like a definite loss. 

Finishing up with Tennessee (Nov. 22) and Florida State (Nov. 29) is the perfect scenario for a Gators team fighting to get six wins. The Volunteers have not won at the Swamp since 2003. Heck, Joey Aguilar might be the only guy on the Vols roster that was alive the last time it happened. Until Tennessee shows it can win at the Swamp, there's no reason to believe it will. 

And Florida State? Who knows what the Seminoles will be by the end of the season. One can almost guarantee they will be weak on the defensive front, because they aren't good right now. This plays into Napier's hands because he is going to run the football. Is it a toss up? Slight, slight edge to FSU? A lot of things can happen in the next nine weeks.