Week 2 Confidence Meter for Florida Football already nose diving

Prior to its game against Miami, we rolled out our 2024 Confidence Meter for Florida Football. We had Florida favored in seven games, but the actual math of the Confidence Meter painted the picture of 6-6 season.

One game later, and the math across the board as dropped.

As a reminder, the Confidence Meter is what percent chance we give Florida to win each game. A confidence over 50% means we think Florida will win, but unless we have the meter at 100% we are not guaranteeing it.

Likewise a percentage under 50% means we don't like Florida's odds, but unless the meter is at zero we are saying things could happen that lead Florida to victory.

Samford - 90% (Previously 99%)

In theory, Florida should still win this game and win it easily.

But...

Remember the last time Florida played Samford while the fan base was at a fever pitch regarding the head coach on the hot seat?

Yeah...

Fire Billy Napier at halftime if this game is even close, but on paper Florida still has too much talent to let this one get away.

Right?

Right...

Texas A&M - 45% (Previously 51%)

The Aggies hung tough with Notre Dame before letting it slip away late, but it is clear Texas A&M is flawed at QB. Conner Weigman was 12 for 30 for 100 yards on Saturday, so this may turn into a rock fight that allows Florida to hang around.

Mississippi State - 50% (Previously 65%)

Blake Shapen wasn't afraid to sling it and was 4/5 on passes over 20 yards on Saturday.

The Bulldogs were playing Eastern Kentucky, so take their 56 points with a grain of salt, considering they opened last season with a 48-7 win.

While this is still the weakest SEC team on paper on Florida's schedule, we can't have confidence in anything right now.

UCF - 45% (Previously 55%)

We had said a couple of times on the site to keep an eye on the UCF game as the moment the knives would officially come out if Florida lost.

Turns out the knives are already out on Napier, but there is zero chance is survives past this game if he loses.

Let the record show that KJ Jefferson looked awful on Thursday night, but the Knights still put up 57 points despite him looking like he had money on the under.

Tennessee - 30% (Previously 45%)

The only reason this isn't 0% is because it is Tennessee at the end of the day, and a Billy Napier special would dictate winning this game while losing to Mississippi State.

Nico Iamaleava went for over 300 yards and three touchdowns as Tennessee cruised past Chattanooga.

Kentucky - 40% (Previously 60%)

Are they good?

No.

Are they still going to find a way to beat Florida?

Probably.

Georgia - 0% (Previously 5%)

We are not going to go as far as the FSU fan declaring he would eat dog poop, but there are a ton of things we would be willing to wager that Florida is not winning this game.

If Miami was blowing Florida off the ball, what should any rationale fan think the Gators are going to hold up against Georgia?

Texas - 0% (Previously 15%)

This is the part of CFB 25 where you just simulate the result and move on.

LSU - 35% (Previously 50%)

I stated prior to the season that I didn't think LSU was very good and their opening game confirmed some of those hunches.

They are still competitive and are still probably better than Florida, but it is clear under Brian Kelly that the Tigers are in the gatekeeper category that Penn State keeps finding themselves in.

History dictates this game is close, but somehow slips away from the Gators.

Ole Miss - 20% (Previously 45%)

Ole Miss still has to show that they, too are not just gatekeepers for 2024, but Lane Kiffin and crew put on quite the show on Saturday by putting up 76 points.

The Rebels won't face a real test until the backside of October, so much of what we see could be a mirage.

But until Florida's secondary can prove it is fixed, we fear Lane Kiffin will slice and dice the unit.

FSU - 60% (Previously 60%)

The only team in the country that has a fanbase more angry than Florida's is Florida State.

The difference between the two is that even the most optimistic of Gator fans believed in an eight-win season. FSU fans legitimately thought they were still national title contenders.

FSU has now been pushed around in the trenches by Georgia Tech and Boston College. And with a team built almost exclusively from the transfer portal, this might be a team that has quit by the time November rolls around.

Final Conclusions:

At this point, we have Florida favored in just two games (Samford and FSU) while being 50/50 against Mississippi State. That would mean a 3-9 season.

If you add up the actual math from the confidence meter, it gets Florida to 4.15 wins.

So... yeah... this might be a long season.