Hail Florida Hail
Fansided

Three stats that don't bode well for Florida Football against UCF on Saturday

By Benjamin Henderson

Aug 31, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier walks on the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier walks on the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

Yesterday, we wrote about three stats that bode well in Florida Football's favor heading into this Saturday against UCF. The Knights have a questionable defensive line, and the accuracy of KJ Jefferson will also be questioned when UCF gets down into the red zone.

But there is a reason why public money has been flooding into betting on UCF, so much so that the odds shifted from Florida being favored by 2.5 points to UCF being favored by 2.5 points.

So, the following are three stats that don't bode well for the Gators as they take on UCF this weekend.

Run Outside

The defense for Florida has plenty of issues, but one area they have struggled at is containing runs that bounce outside. Against Miami, the Hurricanes were able to average 6.3 yards per carry on runs outside the left end.

Against Samford, Florida gave up 6.6 yards per carry on runs outside the right end. And versus Texas A&M, the Gators were hit for 4.57 yards per carry on runs that bounced to either side.

UCF enters this game averaging 6.5 yards per carry on 72 attempts on runs that go outside to either the left or the right.

Given Florida's question marks at defensive end and their ability to hold the edge, don't be surprised if UCF attacks this.

Passing Between The Numbers

We have highlighted this stat before, and it isn't a surprise given how Florida plays defense with two safeties playing 87 yards off the ball, but Florida has had zero answers on passes in the middle of the field between 10-20 yards.

While Florida did hold Cam Ward to 1/4 passing in this area (though they did give up 5/6 on passes over 20 yards in the middle of the field), opposing QBs have been 8/9 when throwing to this area over the past three games.

KJ Jefferson, meanwhile, is 13/19 passing with a 150.8 QB rating, his second-highest QB rating of the 12 quadrants on the field that get rated.

1st Down Rushing

There are plenty of other stats we can point to about UCF's offense that don't bode well for Florida, and in truth there are a lot of stats about UCF's defense that do bode well for Florida.

But there is one stat from UCF that stands out on defense that could generate some stops in a game that is expected to be a high scoring affair.

While UCF's run defense was suspect against Colorado, and we highlighted yesterday that the Buffaloes generated far more yards after contact than they had all season, UCF is 6th in the country in allowing just 4.7 first downs per game via the run against FBS competition.

Knowing Napier's tendencies, it feels like there will be a handful of 3rd and 4 situations where Florida will try to run the ball. And while Florida is averaging 9.75 first-downs per game via the run, they will have to prove they can keep at that average or even exceed it to keep the ball moving on Saturday.

Home/Florida Gators Football