Three scenarios that could get Billy Napier fired from Florida Football in 2024

Earlier in the week, we laid out three scenarios that would guarantee Billy Napier's return as head coach of Florida Football in 2025. Essentially, if Napier wins one of his final five games or can get recruited into the top ten, he is probably safe.

But while the Gator administration's indication is that Napier is safer than most fans seem to think he is, the following are three scenarios in which we could see the administration's hand being forced into cutting the cord.

Lose To UCF

The last time we even mentioned UCF on this site, our mentions became flooded with salty Knights fans who were sad we didn't worship the ground they walked on.

Just like Joe Hendry, if you say their name, they will appear.

So, if you are a Knights fan reading this, welcome, make yourself at home, and listen very carefully to the following: Is it in the realm of possibility that you come into The Swamp and beat Florida? 100%. KJ Jefferson came to Gainesville and did it last year.

However, ask yourself the following: If Florida was playing Texas Tech instead, another Big 12 team who went 6-6 during the regular season in 2023, and lost, would that go over well either in Gainesville?

For as much as Florida fans haven't been happy with the state of recruiting in Gainesville, the worst class Florida has had since 2021 was 18th nationally. The best class UCF has put together in that same timespan was ranked 39th.

UCF did rank 18th with their transfer portal class this past offseason while Florida was 22nd.

The point of all of this is that Napier will still have a more talented roster on paper, and if he loses this one at home, coming off a bye week while UCF has to play Colorado the week before, he will have no one to blame but himself and it is hard to see Gator Nation going "Hey, we'll get them the next time."

Lose Five In A Row Again To Close Out The Season

When projecting out the front half of Florida's schedule, it's not unrealistic to envision a 5-2 start. Let's just pretend, for argument's sake, that Florida beats Miami, Samford, Mississippi State, UCF, and Tennessee while losing to Texas A&M and Kentucky.

You can swap these around however you want, but if this is how things play out, most fans would be in an okay place overall. Just like fans were in an okay place last year when Florida started out 5-2 with losses to Utah and Kentucky but a win over Tennessee.

Then the freefall happened and that's why we, along with everyone else in the country, is having to wonder out loud just how safe Napier is in 2024.

The final five games are brutal. You may have heard that once of 73 times this offseason. But the truth is, at a program like Florida, one can't expect to go 0-5 through that gauntlet and come out the other side unscathed. If Florida loses their final five games, it probably is not making a bowl game for the second straight season, and it is hard to envision even the most patient of boosters standing by idly.

They may claim now that they are willing to be patient; check back with us in November.

DJ Lagway Transfers

"YOu guYS arE JUsT CLIcKbaIT TRAsh, i knEW IT."

Breathe and listen.

Nobody from inside Gator circles is suggesting that DJ Lagway is unhappy. By all accounts, he is progressing well and is willing to wait his turn and take over the reins in 2025.

This piece is simply exploring scenarios where those boosters who claim they will be patient could stop being so patient.

In reality, if Florida goes 6-6, Napier is probably safe for one more year because of Lagway. He is the golden ticket, and most will probably argue, "Well, you have to let Napier have at least one season with Lagway."

If there were betting odds that Lagway would be the starting quarterback for Florida in 2025, we would probably put them at -2000 (heavy favorite).

But this is modern college football, and nothing is guaranteed. Lagway could get homesick, realize he doesn't mesh as well with Napier as he thought, get frustrated if others opt to transfer out, or get an NIL offer he can't refuse.

We're making all these scenarios up, but if you are trying to come up with ways Napier gets the boot for 2025, this would be one of them.