Three scenarios for Billy Napier to still be coach of the Gators in 2025

With the Florida Football season less than two weeks away, Billy Napier's seat is warm enough, at least from an outside perspective, that even Paris Hilton is saying, "That's hot."

In truth, our expectations here at Hail Florida Hail and the actual expectations internally in Gainesville are probably different. Given the amount of his buyout, it would take an unmitigated disaster for the powers that be to actually pull the trigger on letting Napier go after this season.

So it's with that in mind that we have three scenarios where we could realistically see Napier brought back in 2025.

Beat LSU and/or Ole Miss

If we were to project out the season, it's not unrealistic to see 2024 playing out similarly to 2023. Last year, Florida jumped out to a 5-2 record, and then the train derailed for five straight losses.

Given the front half of Florida's schedule in 2024, 5-2 is once again the bare minimum the Gators need to be at heading into their second bye week before their gauntlet of five straight opponents ranked in the top 15 beings. If Florida is 4-3 or worse heading into the bye, it becomes a whole different scenario, but even if Florida starts out 7-0, another five-game losing streak isn't going to bode well for Napier.

Florida has Georgia and Texas as their first two games coming out of their second bye and Florida will be heavy underdogs in both of those games.

This makes the LSU and Ole Miss games crucial season-defining contests, especially given that both are at home. Win at least one of these games, and Florida will, at minimum, make a bowl game and probably wind up with seven wins.

Lose both of these games, and there is a distinct possibility of heading into FSU with at least a four-game losing streak.

Beat Georgia

If you want one game that can atone for almost every sin, Georgia is the one. If Florida goes 6-6 in 2024, but one of the wins is over Georgia, then Napier will be safe.

Hell, one could argue that even if Florida goes 5-7, Napier can be safe if one of those wins is over Georgia.

One reason Dan Mullen didn't make it in Gainesville is that he was 1-3 against Georgia. At some point, Napier is going to have to pull out some wins against the Bulldogs to keep his job safe, and a win in 2024 would go a long way.

Get Recruiting In The Top 10

Right now, Florida is ranked 30th in the 247 Team Rankings and 20th in the On3 Team Rankings. As we noted earlier this week, the Gators are rising up the rankings compared to the depths of where they were, but there is still work to be done.

The odds of Florida getting into the top five when all is said and done is doubtful, but multiple prospects have indicated they are in a wait and see mode with the Gators.

This may be a case of "Which came first," the wins or the recruits. Thus, getting into the top ten might go hand in hand with winning some of the games mentioned above.

But if Florida goes 6-6 and Napier has a recruiting class outside the top 25, it could be a deciding factor to push Napier out the door. A top-ten class could be enough to keep him around for one more year.