Three must win games for Florida Football in 2024 according to ESPN FPI
![Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks on before the game at the Orange and Blue spring football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 13, 2024. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_5472,h_3078,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images%2FImagnImages%2Fmmsport%2F213%2F01hzw2rakt6gsg11wh7a.jpg "Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks on before the game at the Orange and Blue spring football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 13, 2024. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]")
In case you have been living under a rock, Florida Football has the hardest schedule in the country for the 2024 season. The normal cupcakes that pop up on Florida's schedule are non existent for the upcoming season.
Florida is ranked 20th in ESPN's FPI computer model, but beyond Samford, there is no singular opponent most Gator fans would be comfortable placing a large bet on if they were hoping for Florida to win.
As such, the following are the three teams Florida absolutely has to beat to have any hope of a successful 2024 season.
Mississippi State
Coming at 49th on the FPI scale, the Bulldogs are the weakest FBS opponent the Gators will face on paper this season. This will be Florida's first road game of the season, which could create its own fair share of problems for the Gators.
But this is the first head coaching gig ever for new Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby, and Mississippi State had 27 players transfer out including QB Will Rogers and didn't bring in many headliners among the 19 new players they brought in from the portal.
If Florida can't get past Mississippi State, it's going to be a long season.
Kentucky
Once upon a time, the annual matchup against Kentucky was an afterthought with zero reason to be concerned. That has since flipped, and the Wildcats have been the Gators' kryptonite in recent years.
Coming in at 34th in FPI feels about right, as every year Kentucky dominates Florida before having a ho-hum rest of their season. Thus, if Florida hopes to climb back up to the upper echelons of the SEC, it must regain its footing against Kentucky.
UCF
As much as we want to dismiss the Knights for playing in a erector set of a stadium, they have slowly gained oxygen to the point where they believe they are knocking on the door of becoming a "Big Four" team in Florida.
No, they haven't earned that distinction yet. And no, winning the Gasparilla Bowl against a fired coaching staff and a QB who had already announced he was transferring doesn't count.
But coming in at 32nd in FPI, UCF is just close enough to make life uncomfortable against Florida. While we can write off the Gasparilla Bowl as meaningless, there is no writing off this year's game. Outside of transfer KJ Jefferson, Florida still has the better roster from top to bottom on paper and should expect to take of business at home.
If Florida drops this game, the knives will come out even among the most patient of Gator fans.
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