Florida Gators vs Samford Bulldogs final odds and predictions

After a week where it seemed like nothing could go right for Florida Football, the Gators are back on the field tonight against Samford inside The Swamp. The Gators are coming off a 41-17 beatdown at the hands of Miami, and head coach Billy Napier has been in the headlines all week for comments about fans in basements.

Florida is favored to win tonight easily, but whether they will cover the spread and show a glimmer of hope moving forward is a different task.

Vegas Says...

We Say...

Under Billy Napier, Florida is 1-5 against the spread when they are favored by at least 10 points. Now, you may think that is a silly stat, considering Florida is 5-1 straight up in those six games, but as a wise man once said, good teams win, but great teams cover.

We aren't saying Napier needs to put on a show so that a small percentage of people can hit their bet, but it is symbolic of the fact that Florida's offense isn't built to have the explosive plays needed to run get quick scores.

We would love to see DJ Lagway air it out. As we wrote yesterday, we want to see at least 150 air yards (passing yards where the ball is physically caught, not counting yards after catch) out of Lagway just to prove Florida is capable of any type of vertical passing.

But, if we had to guess, Napier is going to continue to run his 12 personnel offense that leans on zone runs, screens, and end around. And if asked after the game why he didn't open it up for Lagway, Napier will probably say something along the lines of "Well, we just wanted to give him some comfortable throws."

Defensively, the Gators have to shore up their communication and crack down on the coverage busts they had against Miami. Samford isn't afraid to sling it, and last week had over 300 yards passing. At the core of where the Bulldogs might find room is attacking Florida's safeties. Asa Turner is out, and depth for Florida is a concern as true freshman Gregory Smith is listed as one of the backups. In addition, Jordan Castell did not look confident at all against Miami and essentially was a stopgap up top who just let anything in front of him be caught.

Florida is the more talented team by leaps and bounds and should win this game without issue. Key word should as Florida as turned games like USF and UNC Charlotte into adventures over the past two years.

We are feeling something like 38-10 in favor of Florida, which would have Samford covering and having the under hit.