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Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs final odds and predictions

By Benjamin Henderson

Sep 14, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (1) run onto the field against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Sep 14, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (1) run onto the field against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
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After a week of feeling like we have discussed everything except the upcoming opponent for Florida Football, the Gators will, in fact, take the field on Saturday in Starkville to take on Mississippi State.

A Florida coach on the hot seat going to Starkville against a terrible Mississippi State team, what could ever go wrong?

Hmm...

Florida Football: Final Countdown

Coming into the 2024 season, this was supposed to be the one SEC game Gator fans could feel confident about. Mississippi State is with first-year head coach Jeff Lebby and, on paper, has a clear talent deficiency compared to the Gators.

Last week, Toldeo annihilated the Bulldogs.

So, the fact that Las Vegas has this game as just a six-point spread in favor of the Gators is more of a commentary on how little faith is being placed into Billy Napier.

We highlighted earlier today that one of Florida's massive problems in 2024 is safety play. Against FBS competition, the Gators are 128th in the country out of 134 teams in opponent yards per passing attempt.

Meanwhile, when Mississippi State throws the ball, they are 28th in yards per passing attempt.

Lovely.

Now, the Bulldogs have their own set of issues on defense, including being 86th in opponent third down conversions, 97th in yards per rushing attempt against, and 117th in sack percentage.

The over/under is 58, which might still be too low, given the question marks of both defenses.

The problem with picking an outright winner is that it is hard to trust whether Florida will employ proper tactics to give itself the best chance to win.

Is Florida going to challenge the Mississippi State receivers, or are they going to sit back in their two-high shell and get dinked and dunked all day?

Is Florida going to play LJ McCray more snaps, or does he have to watch from the sideline a defensive line that is 119th in sack percentage?

Even with Tre Wilson out, is Florida going to lean on their speed on the roster at wide receiver, or are they going to trot out walk-ons to eat up snaps?

Mississippi State can't stop the run, but is Florida going to tip their hand by running the ball every time they are in a pistol set?

Is Napier going to allow either QB to get in a rhythm, or is he going to once again rotate for the sake of rotating?

How many timeouts is Florida going to take to prevent a delay of game because they can't get the play call in due to cowbells?

With all the rumblings about Napier's job and unserious answers he continues to give at press conferences, it is hard to have faith in picking the Gators.

So until Florida can prove us wrong, we are picking Mississippi State to win 34-27.

Hopefully, there are at least some good things on film.

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