Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes final odds and predictions

Opening day is finally here after nine long months as Florida Football prepares to embark on one of the more crucial campaigns in recent memory. Rather than opening with a cupcake, Florida is opening with the Miami Hurricanes, ranked 19th in the AP Poll to be the year.

Las Vegas has Florida as an underdog, but what do we here at Hail Florida Hail think will happen at 3:30 inside The Swamp?

Vegas Says...

We Say...

Our roster preview earlier this week stated that we think Florida has the edge at Quarterback, Tight End, Defensive Tackle, Cornerback, and Safety. In contrast, we said Miami has the advantage at Wide Reciever, Running Back, Offensive Line, and Defensive End. We called Linebackers a push.

The 247 Talent Composite claims that Florida has the more talented roster as well.

It's cliche to say this game will be determined in the trenches. Still, the matchup of Miami defensive end Rueben Bain against the tackles for Florida (Austin Barber and Kamryn Waites) will ultimately tell the story of this game.

Even though we don't love Chimere Dike, Miami's secondary is awful, and Tre Wilson by himself has the potential for 150 yards if Graham Mertz can be given any kind of time to allow Wilson to work his magic. Plus Florida has speed waiting in the wings with Aidan Mizell, Elijhah Badger, and Tank Hawkins (if healthy), but that speed will do zero good if Florida's line is getting blown off the ball.

Plan B for Florida is to chip with Hayden Hansen and/or Ja'Kobi Jackson and/or Treyaun Webb, which is fine because Florida is going to need to win this game in air given Miami's front seven. Montrell Johnson is listed as healthy and ready to go for this game, but we feel like we have to take his clean bill of health as a grain of salt until we see him in action.

And even though we don't always love Napier's love for screens, it might just work in his favor for this game, given that week one tackling is always suspect around the country, and Miami wasn't an elite tackling team to begin with.

Do any of that and there is a pathway for Florida to put up over 30 points in this game. Have the offensive line be what we fear it could be, Florida might put up less than 10.

On the flip side, there is less mystery to this matchup of Miami's offense vs Florida's defense. Cam Ward has pedigree and has an appealing stat line from Washington State, but as we chronicled last week his fatal flaw is hanging onto the ball too long.

Last year, 24.3% of the time he faced pressure, he took a sack, the 10th-worst rate in the country. His time to throw when he had a clean pocket was one of the quickest in the country, but when under pressure, it was one of the longest.

Translation: if Ward doesn't like his first read, he tends to hold onto the ball for too long.

And if Florida can avoid getting beat deep, the battle in the trenches should be even enough for Florida to get a couple of red zone stops. Miami has transfer running back Damien Martinez, who is a big back at 6'0" and 232 pounds. But Florida feels confident about their defensive tackles far more than their EDGE guys, and the linebacker group for the Gators has the potential to be a strength.

Some of the chatter about The Swamp being the deciding factor is a bit overblown, given that Miami has three of their five starting offensive linemen back, and left guard will be the only position where someone without significant experience will be broken in.

But there are two stats worth noting here:

1. Cam Ward was 4-8 on the road at Washington State
2. Miami was 0-3 last year in road games that had more than 40,000 people

Final Verdict...

There are a billion question marks and flaws that Billy Napier has to prove have been fixed heading into the 2024 season. There is a narrative one can craft that all of those issues have been addressed heading into the new campaign.

And if Florida can tackle at any kind of a respectable rate and keep special teams organized, this game will come down to whether or not Florida's offensive line can hold up just long enough to let the speed guys for the Gators ran wild on Miami's secondary.

There are enough ways to mitigate these threats and buy Mertz enough time without sacrificing weapons they need to count on.

For that reason, we are picking Florida to win 27-23.