Florida Football: State of the program going into Samford game

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) paints a grim picture for the Gators' 2024 campaign.

Once ranked as a top-20 team in the preseason, Florida has plummeted to No. 44 in the updated FPI rankings. The projected win-loss record has nosedived from a respectable 5.9-6.1 to a concerning 3.8-8.2. Perhaps most alarming is the dramatic drop in the probability of reaching bowl eligibility, from a confident 58.2% to a mere 15.4% chance of winning six games or more.

A closer look at the schedule reveals the daunting task ahead. After their expected victory against Samford (97.7% win probability), the Gators face a gauntlet of SEC powerhouses and formidable non-conference opponents. Notable matchups include:

Georgia (5.8% win probability), the current No. 1 ranked team
Texas (5.3% win probability), ranked No. 4
Tennessee (12.7% win probability), ranked No. 15
Ole Miss (20.3% win probability), ranked No. 6

The fact that Florida is favored in only one remaining game speaks volumes about the uphill battle they face.

The DJ Lagway Era Begins

Amidst this challenging landscape, there is a silver lining with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

The 2023 Gatorade National Player of the Year is set to make his first career start against Samford, following an injury to starter Graham Mertz. This unexpected turn of events accelerates Florida's transition to its quarterback of the future.

Lagway's debut in the season opener against Miami offered a glimpse of his potential, completing 3 of 6 passes for 31 yards and adding 20 yards on the ground. While these numbers are modest, they hint at the dual-threat capabilities that made Lagway such a coveted recruit.

Coach Napier expressed optimism about Lagway's attitude and preparation, noting, "DJ's got a great attitude, obviously. He's excited, got a chance to play Saturday for the first time in his career." The coach also highlighted the team's rallying around their young signal-caller, suggesting a positive locker room dynamic despite the challenging circumstances.

Napier's Hot Seat and Program Stability

The pressure on Billy Napier is palpable. After a disappointing season opener, rumors and speculation about his job security have reached an all-time high. The noise from the media and the fan base calling for change has the athletic department potentially on the brink of a major decision.
However, it's crucial to note that Napier's fate remains in his hands.

A strong showing in the coming weeks, starting with the Samford game, could calm the storm and possibly buy him more time to implement his vision for the program. Napier himself remains confident, stating, "I do think we have an opportunity to be a good football team as the season goes on."

The Player Perspective

Often overlooked in discussions about coaching changes and program direction is the impact on the players.

For underclassmen like DJ Lagway, a potential coaching change could lead to a difficult decision: stay and adapt to a new system or enter the transfer portal where NIL deals and fresh starts await. The program's ability to retain these young talents could be crucial for long-term stability.

On the other hand, upperclassmen and seniors may view the remainder of the season as an audition for the NFL or an opportunity to showcase their skills for potential transfer destinations. This dynamic could create an interesting mix of individual and team motivations as the season progresses.

Looking Ahead: Reasons for Cautious Optimism

Despite the gloomy outlook, there are reasons for Gator fans to maintain hope:

DJ Lagway's potential: If the freshman QB can acclimate quickly to the college game, he could provide a spark that energizes the entire team.

Underdog mentality: With low expectations, the Gators have an opportunity to play loose and potentially surprise some higher-ranked opponents.

Winnable games: While not favored, matchups against teams like Kentucky (45.2% win probability) and Texas A&M (40.1%) are within reach.

With a brutal schedule, a freshman quarterback learning on the job, and uncertainty surrounding the coaching staff, the challenges are undeniable. However, adversity often breeds opportunity, and the Gators have a chance to defy expectations.