Florida Football didn't hit the over/under in 2023. It will be even harder in 2024.

The Gators are once again pegged for 5.5 wins in 2024

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks at the scoreboard during the second half against the
Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks at the scoreboard during the second half against the / Matt Pendleton / USA TODAY NETWORK
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There is a reason that Vegas knows best, and the house always wins. Last season, when the over/under for Florida Football was set at 5.5 wins, it felt like free money to take the over. Sure, the Gators had to replace Anthony Richardson with Graham Mertz, but there was plenty of optimism among Gator Nation to believe Florida would take a step forward.

Oops.

In 2024, the Gators have the same benchmark to hit: 5.5 wins. But unfortunately for Billy Napier and crew, the road to hit the over will be even more difficult.

Florida Football: Vegas Knows Best

As has been chronicled and will continued to be talked about, Florida has a brutal schedule in 2024. The Gators could be the 20th best team in the country and still go 6-6. ESPN just updated their "Way Too Early Top 25" and Florida will face nine teams on that list.

Nine.

If you are keeping score at home, FSU has three on that list.

So even though Vegas thinks Florida will once again miss a bowl game and go 5-7, it's difficult to argue with the logic.

But as we have argued here at Hail Florida Hail, a difficult schedule isn't a get out of jail free card if Napier and the Gators don't hit the over in 2024.

If we hit the rewind machine to when Napier was hired, would any Gator fan have said "Yeah man, it's fine if you don't beat Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Miami in year three of your tenure."?

Of course not.

The fact that Florida might have to be the 20th best team just to go 6-6 is fair. Even a team that is the 10th best team in the country would have to scrap to go 9-3 with Florida's schedule

But when Napier was hired, the expectation was that Florida would be a top ten team by year three of his tenure. Dan Mullen could field a top ten team, it was the inability to field a top five team that was his downfall.

Hitting the over in 2024 isn't an unfair standard to place on Napier, difficult schedule or not.