Florida Football Confidence Meter for all 12 games in 2024

Georgia - 5%

One of the very real issues with the Gators right now is that they have sunk to a level where this percentage is as low as 5%. One should always feel like Florida has a puncher's chance when it goes into Jacksonville.

But for the past two years, it has felt more like a formality on the schedule than a must-see TV show. Now, if you are still doing math, Florida is predicted to have 4.3 wins.

If they are on the 5-2 side of this metric, hope might go up to 10%. If they are on the 4-3 side of this, well at least the drinks will be cold.

Texas - 15%

Does Florida have a real shot in this game?

Probably not, but there are two factors working in their favor:

1. Texas lost CJ Baxter for the season.
2. It's an 11 AM local kickoff.

If Florida can catch Texas naping it might just have a chance, but in reality the odds for this one are not very high.

LSU - 50%

I'm not actually convinced LSU is going to be great this season. They lost their Heisman-winning QB, who covered up the fact their defense was a trainwreck last year.

Corey Raymond is back at LSU, so that doesn't instill faith that their secondary will be any better. The game is at home, and Florida just always feels like they are one play away from victory.

Of Florida's final four SEC opponents, this feels the most winnable.

Ole Miss - 45%

Ole Miss attacked the transfer portal hard in the offseason and appears poised to take another step forward and make the expanded playoffs in 2024.

But there is a buyer beware that comes with Lane Kiffin. We have a phrase here at Hail Florida Hail that until you have done it, you haven't done it. For as long as Kiffin has been around college football, he hasn't been the head coach of a team to enter that elite category.

So, assuming they are in the second tier of teams in 2024, Florida will feel like they have a shot at home.

FSU - 60%

Speaking of teams built from the transfer portal, FSU took a nose dive for everyone to see on Saturday. They now have some severe question marks on both sides of the ball, and what we were sold is not who they are.

This game is on the road, and Florida has plenty of question marks.

But if you factor in that one of the worst Florida teams in quite some time was leading in the fourth quarter against one of the best FSU teams in quite some time, and based on what we saw Saturday, the gap between these two is far less than last year, we like Florida's odds in this one.

Conclusions

If we go strictly by games, we have Florida favored, and the Gators will wind up with an 8-4 record.

If you do the actual math of our Confidence Meter, the Gators will wind up with a record of 6-6.

(0.6+0.99+0.51+0.6+0.55+0.45+0.6+0.05+0.15+0.5+0.45+0.6= 6.05)

And if go by what we think just ballparking Florida in 2024, we think they are going to wind up 7-5.

The beauty of the Confidence Meter is that the games get to be played for real on the field.