Florida Football Confidence Meter for all 12 games in 2024

UCF - 55%

For a multitude of reasons, this meter should be much higher on the list. This game is at home, Florida is coming off a bye while UCF has to play Colorado the week before, and Florida once again has a much more talented roster on paper.

But this is a game UCF has circled on its calendar, and it probably doesn't care if they go 6-6 in 2024 as long as one of those wins is over Florida.

Combined with Napier's propensity to lose games he really shouldn't, we don't feel comfortable going above 55% for now on this one.

Tennessee - 45%

If you are keeping score at home, we have the Gators north of 50% in their first five games.

If we are being honest, 4-1 feels like the correct record Florida is going to wind up through five games. But if one were to do the math on these percentages, Florida is actually predicted to win 3.3 games.

So it is somewhat weird we don't have Tennessee high up because, after all, it is Tennessee. We all know what Florida did to them last year in The Swamp and for two decades it has been the same old song and dance with the Volunteers.

Two big differences this year are that the game is in Knoxville, so the fever-pitch roll Florida was able to get on in the second quarter last year is mitigated, and the Volunteers don't have Joe Milton at quarterback, who we were never sold on.

Kentucky - 60%

Oh Kentucky.

Fool me once; shame on me. Fool me four times, and we are just idiots.

There is no mistaking that Kentucky is a thorn in the side of the Gators. But if Billy Napier intends to keep coaching in Gainesville past 2024, this is a must-win game.

Similar to UCF, Florida has a much better roster on paper, and the game is at home.

Because this game is a little later in the season than normal, Kentucky won't be able to do their normal shtick of going all in against Florida and then petering out by the end of the season.