Florida Football Confidence Meter for all 12 games in 2024

It is officially Florida Football season, and as such, it is time to bust back out our official Hail Florida Hail Confidence Meter for the 2024 season.

Rather than attempt to predict a pure win/loss for each game, we are going to give our level of confidence that Florida has to win each game. A confidence of 65%, for example, means we think Florida should win, but there is a pathway for them to lose. A confidence of 30% means a lot of things would need to go correct, but there is still an outside chance.

With that said, here is our game-by-game Confidence Meter for this season.

Miami - 60%

We have cast plenty of doubt on Florida during the offseason and have been pointed in our criticisms of Billy Napier. At the core of what we have said is that the downfall of Florida in 2023 wasn't caused strictly by a talent issue, and too many times, the Gators committed errors a better-organized team shouldn't commit.

But you know who else continues to shoot himself in the foot even more than Napier and is 8-11 against ranked opponents as a Power Four coach?

Mario Cristobal.

Do you know who is coaching the team Florida plays on Saturday?

Mario Cristobal.

This confidence of 60% is more so because it is always the same song and dance with Miami: Get a highly ranked recruiting class only to fall flat on their face once the games begin for real.

Samford - 99%

This is football, and anything is possible, but it would require an all-time face plant that even Will Muschamp would be proud of for Florida to lose to Samford.

Frankly, if it does happen, we might as well pack up shop and start thinking about basketball season.

Texas A&M - 51%

The Aggies are hard to get a read on. Like Miami, they are also kings at getting top-ranked recruiting classes, only to be awful once the games begin for real.

The caveat is Texas A&M now has Mike Elko, who has only been a head coach at the Power Four level for two years, so it's still unknown whether or not he is prone to Cristobal levels of errors.

But considering Texas A&M also took like half of Florida's defensive staff and a handful of players from a terrible 2023 defense, and the fact this game is at home, this feels like a game Florida is supposed to win even if it's far from guaranteed.

Mississippi State - 65%

On paper, Mississippi State is the second easiest team on Florida's schedule. The Bulldogs are also coming off a 5-7 season, have a new head coach, and have a much weaker roster on paper.

This game is on the road, though, and the cowbells will be ringing all day long, which could create problems. But like Samford, if Florida can't win this one, we just need to find a new sport to watch.