Florida Football closer than most think to Miami's offense

As we chronicled yesterday here at Hail Florida Hail, Florida Football has an advantage on defense over Miami. In particular, the secondary for Miami has plenty of question marks, while the Gators feel confident in every position group, except for the defensive end.

The offense is a different story, and the Gators have their work cut out for them in order to match what the Hurricanes have on paper.

Quarterbacks

The basis for many debates in the offseason, most around the country would probably tell you that Miami has the advantage at QB with transfer Cam Ward at the helm. He threw for 3,735 yards, 25 touchdowns, and had a completion percentage north of 65% in 2023 while playing with Washington State.

But what if I told you that Graham Mertz had a better QBR and QB Rating than Ward in 2023?

As we pointed out last week, Ward has one fatal flaw: He holds on to the ball too long if he doesn't like his first read. It contributed to him being one of the most sacked QBs in the country in 2023.

Mertz is also a year deeper into the system he is about to run and won't have to deal with the crowd noise of The Swamp. If you want to argue for a push, that's fair, but for the purpose of this game, if we had to choose, we would pick Mertz.

Edge - Florida

Wide Receivers

This isn't even up for debate when it comes to who feels better about their group on paper. Florida have some players waiting in the wings we like, such as Elijhah Badger, Aidan Mizell, and Tank Hawkins. But the actual unit it looks like they are going to roll out of Tre Wilson, Chimere Dike, and Kahleil Jackson just doesn't compare on paper to Miami's trio.

Samuel Brown, Jacolby George, and Xavier Restrepo all went for over 800 yards last year and all had at least 13 yards per catch.

What's fascinating about this matchup is that each unit faces the inverse in the opposing secondary. Florida feels good about their secondary while Miami has plenty of questions.

Edge - Miami

Running Back

Montrell Johnson is the wild card for Florida, as his health is unknown heading into Saturday after offseason knee surgery. But even if he is healthy, his metrics don't match Damien Martinez's.

The transfer from Oregon State had 1,185 yards rushing last year and 6.1 yards per carry. Johnson was no slouch at 5.4 yards per carry, and Florida has a caravan behind him of capable backs, but fair is fair in this category.

Edge - Miami

Tight End

Arlis Boardingham is coming off a solid campaign and caught 26 passes for 289 yards. Hayden Hansen will also get used as a blocking tight end, though we wouldn't classify his blocking as elite.

Miami, however, doesn't utilize its tight ends much. Cam McCormick had eight catches off 564 snaps last year, and his blocking isn't considered elite either.

Edge - Florida

Offensive Line

The greatest wildcard of them all and at first glance one would be tempted to give the edge to Miami, but the deeper metrics tell a closer story.

On paper, Florida is going to roll out Austin Barber, Knijeah Harris, Jake Slaughter, Damieon George Jr., and Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson.

Miami meanwhile looks like they will for sure go with Jalen Rivers, Zach Carpenter, Anez Cooper, and Francis Mauigoa. Matthew McCoy or Ryan Rodriguez are rumored to be the fifth starter along the line.

At left tackle, Barber gave up five sacks and eight hurries last year while Rivers gave up three sacks and six hurries.

At left guard, McCoy took 141 snaps last year and didn't give up a sack. Harris, meanwhile, gave up zero sacks in 171 snaps last year.

Center feels mostly even. Both Slaughter and Carpenter played significant snaps in 2023, and both gave up two sacks.

Right guard is a mystery for Florida, while Miami will feel confident with their setup. George is moving over from right tackle, where he gave up four sacks and 24 hurries. Cooper gave up just one sack and eight hurries last year at right guard.

Right tackle is also a mystery. The pure metrics would tell you Florida has the advantage. As bad as George was from a perception point last year at right tackle, Mauigoa gave up five sacks and 23 hurries. Crenshaw-Dickson had just six hurries playing at San Diego State, but practice reports make it seem like he and George are far from locks to start.

So Miami has a clear edge at LT and RG. There is a push at center. Florida could be argued to have the edge at LG and RT, but that is unknown.

Plus, Miami's offensive line will probably look better simply because the defensive ends for the Hurricanes are a much stiffer test for Florida's offensive line compared to the inverse matchup.

Edge - Miami