Final odds and predictions for Florida Football against UCF
There are two pathways one can take when trying to predict what Florida Football will do today against UCF. Pathway one is the gut feeling of pessimism that has taken hold, given the lack of faith in Billy Napier. Pathway two involves looking at genuine advantages Florida has against UCF that are similar to the advantages the Gators had against Mississippi State.
The problem when trying to predict whether or not Florida will emerge victorious today is figuring out whether or not Napier is going to screw up the advantages and cost the Gators the game.
Florida Football: Who's Gonna Run This Town Tonight
Spread | Over/Under |
---|---|
UCF (-1.5) | 62 |
Napier's offense was the perfect antidote for the defense Mississippi State was trying to run. The Bulldogs sat back in a soft zone and begged Florida to dink and dunk underneath.
And since Mississippi State doesn't have a defensive line that can get to anyone, Florida was content to dink and dunk with zero resistance.
As we have noted this week, UCF also has a terrible defensive line that has the fewest amount of sacks in the country. Against Colorado, the Knights were bullied in the trenches and nobody would accuse Colorado of having an offensive line that bullies people.
Combined with UCF having questions in their secondary due to injuries, opt-outs, and all-around poor play, one can envision a pathway where the Knights also sit back like the Bulldogs, and Florida enjoys similar success on offense.
The problem is that UCF has a more potent offense than Mississippi State, and there is minimal reason to believe Florida is going to employ a more aggressive defense.
Even though the Gators have been getting shredded while playing in a two-high shell that has their safeties 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and backpedaling, even if it's 3rd and 2, Napier is so systematic that he genuinely believes the scheme will eventually work itself out.
The scoreline against Mississippi State would tell you that Florida ultimately won with room to spare, but in truth, if the Bulldogs had converted from the one-yard line to start the 4th quarter and Austin Barber had not fallen on DJ Lagway's fumble in the endzone, the end result could have been a much different story.
So the pessimistic side won't be surprised if tonight winds up being something like 45-28 in favor of UCF.
But there is a rational side, perhaps against better judgment, that leads us to believe Florida will win this football game. Beyond that, on paper, Florida has the better roster, this game is going to come down to whether or not the Gators can stiffen up in the red zone on defense.
UCF can hit explosive plays, but they are 118th in the country in red zone scoring percentage against FBS competition. Combined with KJ Jefferson having some accuracy issues in 2024, Florida needs two or three key incompletions in the red zone to turn touchdowns into field goals.
Do that and move the ball like we believe there is a pathway to do, and we predict Florida wins this game 34-30.
May the odds forever be in Florida's favor.