ESPN's FPI predicts two more wins for Florida Football in 2024

Coming into the 2024 season, there was a pathway for Florida Football to win seven or even eight games if everything went correctly. Four games into the year, and at best Florida might be able to scrape out a 6-6 season if everything goes correctly.

And if you go by the FPI metric from ESPN, Florida is only favored in two of their remaining eight games this year.

The following is the percentage chance the FPI metric gives Florida in their remaining eight games.

UCF: 40.3%

When UCF beat Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl in 2021, Knights fans turned it into their Super Bowl. Most Gator fans have countered that Florida had an interim coach, a roster that was checked out, and a quarterback who had literally announced he was transferring after the game, and it still took a second-half comeback for Florida to lose.

We point that out to say Florida fans won't have the same luxury of writing off a loss to UCF in 2024. The fact that Florida isn't favored against a squad who needed a miracle comeback against TCU, who themselves went and gave up 66 points to SMU the following week, is a massive indiment on how far Florida has fallen under Billy Napier.

And since UCF fans love to read about themselves and are bound to flood our mentions, we will just say if the Knights win next Saturday, they will have earned it.

And Billy Napier needs to be fired.

Tennessee: 8.7%

Last year Billy Napier was able to pull a rabbit out of the hat against Tennessee. Given the fact that Florida has only lost twice to the Volunteers since 2005, it feels wild to think that Florida could lose this game by 20+ points and no one would blink.

Florida looked woefully unprepared for the uptempo offense of Mississippi State. We shudder to think what is going to happen against Tennessee.

Kentucky: 53.9%

The pattern Kentucky is following in 2024 is the pattern they have always followed. They looked terrible against South Carolina only to pull a rabbit out of the hat against Georgia.

In truth, given that this game is usually earlier in the season, that rabbit the Wildcats found against the Bulldogs would normally be the rabbit they find against the Gators.

So maybe, just maybe Kentucky won't have any tricks up their sleeve this year and the Gators can end their losing streak to the Wildcats.

Maybe.

Georgia: 11.7%

The fact that FPI gives Florida a better chance against Georgia than it does against Tennessee is worthy of an eyebrow raise, but it is very hard to envision a pathway where the Gators win this one.

In particular, Florida is going to get mauled in the trenches in this one, and unless the Bulldogs self-implode, this could be another 20+ point defeat.

Texas: 3.8%

After getting to play Georgia, Florida's reward is going on the road against Texas.

Fun.

If you are looking for any kind of angle Florida has to pull off the upset, this is an 11 AM local kick, so maybe Florida can catch Texas napping.

Maybe.

LSU: 40.7%

Every year LSU feels like Charlie Brown having the football pulled away from him. Florida is constantly right there to pull off the win, only for it to slip away in the fourth quarter.

If Florida wants to make a bowl game in 2024, this is actually a must-win game on the schedule. It is at home and LSU has been inconsistent, so it is fair to give Florida a chance.

Ole Miss: 12.3%

If Lane Kiffin comes in and put 50+ points on Florida's defense, the least he could do he stay behind to teach them how to be better right?

It is interesting that Ole Miss and LSU were somewhat in the same bucket at the start of the year, but it is clear Ole Miss is the more dangerous-looking team.

FSU: 51.1%

If the powers that be put this game on at 9 AM on CSPAN, I don't know if many fans would mind.

If everything breaks correct for the Gators, this could be a game that decides if Florida makes a bowl game or not. Florida could also be 2-9 coming into this game and will be begging for a running clock by the second quarter.