Calculating Florida Football's wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

There is no denying that Billy Napier enters the 2024 season with Florida Football on the hot seat. The Gators are 11-14 under his watch, and he is more likely to be shown the door than he is to be granted a place in the College Football Playoff this season.

But if a couple of things can go correct in 2024 that didn't go correct in 2023, it also isn't insane to envision an 8-4 season. And at least one publication seems think that Florida could sneak into the playoffs if they can manage eight wins.

Florida Football: Find Your Wins

We made the point last week that anything short of 8-4 for Florida in 2024 will mean that Napier doesn't have the Gators where they should be by year three of his tenure. That was with us acknowledging that the Kelley Ford Index projects that even the 12th-best team in the country would struggle to get seven wins with Florida's schedule.

The index came out with another data point this week which could put Florida in an interesting position if they were to achieve an 8-4 season. According to Kelley Ford, the Gators are the sole team in the country who could potentially get an at-large bid in the expanded playoffs with an 8-4 record.

The theory with Florida is that if they go 8-4, there is the potential for zero "bad" losses and they would still have multiple top 25 wins under their belt. As we saw last season with Alabama, the committee will reward a team who has enough good wins under their belt to supersede a loss.

And with Florida, they could for sure go 6-1 during the front half of their schedule and close out their brutal back five with a 2-3 mark to get to 8-4.

Does an 8-4 Florida actually get in? Probably not, because there would be at least one questionable enough of a loss that would keep them out.

But the fact it could even be a possibility highlights the brutality of their schedule for 2024.