![Florida forward Alex Condon (21) celebrates with the bench during the second half of an NCAA mens basketball game at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2714,h_1526/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01km109ex95r2shes71c.jpg "Florida forward Alex Condon (21) celebrates with the bench during the second half of an NCAA mens basketball game at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
Winning a national title is tough. Florida won it all last season, but it wasn’t without a complete roller coaster of emotions all throughout March Madness.
The Gators are in a prime position to try and make a run to go back-to-back and win the program’s fourth overall national title, and if history is a guide, then Florida might be in prime position to be one of just two teams that could cut down the nets when it’s all over in April.
Florida is in a prime spot to win the national title
The social media account Onyx Odds did some digging, and it found a trend with past national champions.
22 of the last 25 champions were in the top 25 in both offense and defense in the KenPom analytics rankings. There are eight teams that fit that criteria heading into the 2026 edition of March Madness:
- Duke
- Michigan
- Arizona
- Houston
- Florida
- Iowa State
- Michigan State
- Louisville
That list by itself includes all four No. 1 seeds as well as a smattering of dark horses who could make a run. But whether it's fate or just pure coincidence, no one since 1998 has been from the western half of the United States and won the national title.
That would knock Arizona off this list.
Also, for whatever reason, 19 of the last 20 national champions didn’t wear red as a school color, so that kicks out Houston, Iowa State, and Louisville.
And finally, of the last 25 national champions, no one from the Big Ten has done it. That kicks out Michigan and Michigan State.
So if history holds, the only two teams that could win the national title are Florida and Duke.
Only 2 teams can actually win the NCAA Tournament this season pic.twitter.com/JL82UgxkRT
— Onyx (@OnyxOdds) March 18, 2026
Now obviously, the last three parts are more semantics than anything that would actually impact a team. No one is going to blink an eye if Arizona, Michigan, or Houston wind up winning the whole thing. And the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s tournament are the only four teams in the country that are top ten in both offense and defense in KenPom.
But what it does paint a picture of is that Florida has as good a chance as any of the other main contenders of winning it all in Indianapolis in April.