Through three games, we know a lot about the Gators, while at the same time there are still a ton of question marks. Part of what makes things difficult to evaluate is that we have yet to see Florida take on one of the genuine big dogs of 2026. FAU rebounded to pick up a couple of wins, but they are still outside the top 100 of the Jeff Sagarin rankings. Campbell is actually on the verge of being ranked in FCS, but they are still FCS at the end of the day. And it is tough to get a read on just how good Auburn is going to be in 2026.
There is no mistaking that Ole Miss is one of the big dogs of 2026 and today is a chance for the Gators to become a big dog too.
Florida looking to move to 4-0 in 2026
- Spread: Florida -3.5
- Moneyline: Florida -156; Ole Miss +130
- Over/under: 58.5 points
The fact that Vegas has Florida as the favorite in this game feels wild and also feels not that wild at the same time. This is after the same Gator team that went 4-8 last year and has a defense that has struggled to stop FAU and Auburn. Now that Trinidad Chambliss is coming to town, one has to shudder at the thought of Ole Miss going down the field with next to no resistance.
Florida is currently 96th in points allowed per drive and are 116th in points allowed per drives that start inside the opponents 20.
Not great.
We have chronicled at length some of the issues the defense has had to this point, but the root fear is that when push comes to shove, defensive coordinator Brad White has this tendency to revert to the same soft Cover Three defense he did at Kentucky, and it hasn’t gone well.
But Ole Miss has some question marks too about its defense. That stat that has Florida 116th in points allowed per drive that starts inside the 20? Ole Miss is tied with Florida at 116th. They are 76th overall in points per drive.
Ole Miss also has 48 missed tackles through three games.
Jadan Baugh is chomping at the bit somewhere.
Florida being the favorite isn’t that crazy. The over/under being under 60 points does feel crazy as this feels like a track meet where the first team to 40 is going to be the winner.
And since we are choosing optimism until we won’t, our final prediction is:
- Florida 44
- Ole Miss 41
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