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Oddsmakers give Florida Football a better chance than most against LSU

Florida is an underdog against LSU, but not by as much as some would think

By Benjamin Henderson

Nov 9, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Aidan Warner (16) passes the ball during the second half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Nov 9, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Aidan Warner (16) passes the ball during the second half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
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Heading into this Saturday's contest there would seem to be minimal reason to believe Florida Football has a chance against LSU. The Gators are 4-5, coming off a blowout loss to Texas where Billy Napier questioned the effort of some players, and we don't know if DJ Lagway will actually be cleared to play after getting hurt against Georgia.

So it may be a bit of a surprise to see Florida given a shot against LSU this Saturday, but there is a reason why Vegas builds skyscrapers in the desert.

Florida Football: So You're Saying There's A Chance...

FanDuel opened the odds with LSU as a 5.5 point favorite, and already that number has dropped to 4.5 points ahead of the 3:30 kickoff in The Swamp.

It feels wild that this line is this close but we are going to guess there are several factors at play:

  1. This line feels like it is going off the assumption that DJ Lagway is going to be cleared to play, because it is hard to envision Florida ever scoring 20 points with Aidan Warner as QB.
  2. Computer models continue to rank Florida higher than humans. ESPN's FPI ranks Florida 28th and gives Florida a 42% of winning.
  3. Florida has constantly been close, but can never get over the hump against the Tigers. Even last year, as Jaydon Daniels ran wild over Florida, the Gators did have a second-half lead.
  4. LSU just got hammered by Alabama in what was essentially a playoff eliminator game. We noted a couple of weeks ago that LSU was beatable, and if they lost to Alabama, there is a narrative of this being a "letdown game" for the Tigers.

For what it is worth, the biggest "upset" of the Billy Napier Era is when they beat Tennessee last year as a 5.5-point underdog.

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