The NCAA Softball Tournament is set to get underway this weekend, and the Florida Gators are entering the tournament seeded third nationally. This enables them to host Regionals and a potential Super Regional.
To get to Super's, Florida will have to navigate the Gainesville Regional, featuring FAU, Georgia Tech, and Mercer.
How much of an upset alert should Florida be on this weekend? Let's explore who is looking to beat the Gators.
Florida Gators open the NCAA Division I softball tournament against Mercer
On paper, this has all the makings of a potential run-rule game. Mercer comes into the tournament as the champions of the SoCon Tournament. The Bears were the 5th seed in that tournament, but won seven out of eight games to claim the auto bid and a ticket to Gainesville.
The SoCon is considered a top ten softball conference, so winning that tournament is worth something and Mercer does have a win this year at Georgia.
They also lost to FSU 14-0 and 19-1 on back-to-back days earlier this season.
Mercer also had six Quad 4 losses on the season. Florida, meanwhile, didn't have a single Quad 2 or worse loss all season.
FAU will be favored over Georgia Tech
The winner of Florida and Mercer will take on the winner of FAU and Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech wound up being one of the last four teams to make it into the tournament. Ranked 38th in RPI, the big blemish against the Yellow Jackets is that they were just 6-18 against Quad 1 competition in 2025. They, too, were run-ruled by FSU this year, losing 8-0 in the ACC Tournament.
FAU enters as the feisty in-state foe looking to cause some damage. Ranked 32nd in RPI, the Owls were 5-5 against Quad 1 opponents. They had wins this year over Clemson, Ole Miss, and NC State. They closed the regular season on a ten-game winning streak before losing 1-0 in the AAC Tournament to North Texas.
The Owls can score runs and were 25th in runs scored this season. They are not a power-hitting team and were outside the top 100 in home runs hit, but they do hit doubles and are top 25 in on-base percentage.
Keys To Advancing
The Regional format moves quickly and has the potential to cram five games into three days as part of its double-elimination format.
It would be a shocker of shockers if Florida lost to Mercer, and the firepower for Florida should be too much for Mercer to handle. The Gators are averaging 9.4 runs per game this year against teams with an RPI higher than 50th.
It's the pitching depth for the Gators that should provide an advantage and should allow them to outlast FAU and Georgia Tech on Saturday and Sunday.
But one area to keep an eye on, especially if Florida winds up playing FAU on Saturday, is that Florida was just 40th this year in fielding percentage, and it has felt worse than that at times. The Owls, meanwhile, have the best fielding percentage in the country.
Action for Florida gets underway on Friday at 4:30 PM.