It's going to be a late night in Gainesville as Florida Basketball won't tip off against Missouri until 9 PM. The Gators enter the game with a top-five ranking and are about to enter a stretch of four games where Florida should be favored in all of them.
But before you can win four, you have to win one, and tonight, Missouri comes to town feeling confident in their own right.
Florida Basketball: Size Matters
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida (-10) | 155.5 Points | Florida -650 |
Missouri is a high-scoring team, even though they aren't that high-tempo of a team. Missouri shoots well and is 12th in the country in shooting percentage.
But where the Tigers can really cause problems for Florida is they are 3rd in the country in free throws attempted, averaging 28 free throws per game. Missouri draws a foul on 26% of offensive plays, the 10th-best rate in the country. But Missouri doesn't hit their free throws at a high rate, making just 72% of those attempts.
It feels cliche to keep going back to the size of the Gators in 2025, but once again, the size advantage for Florida should play a major role in the game. As we saw against Arkansas, even if the big men for Florida pick up some early fouls, the Gators are so deep down low that they can just rotate through and not miss a beat.
Really, Missouri's only hope is to draw 30+ free throws because they do not defend the three-point line well (269th in the country) and their most glaring weakness that Florida should have a field day with is rebounding.
Missouri is 207th in defensive rebounding percentage, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Florida have 20+ offensive rebounds tonight.
If the Tigers can make some early open shots and/or Florida struggles from three, this could have some themes from the Arkansas game. But playing at home should mitigate some of the fouls Missouri is banking on and should allow the Gators to pull away in the second half.