If things have turned around for Billy Napier and Florida, Ole Miss is a litmus test

We here at Hail Florida Hail like to deal with logic and data when it comes to Florida Football, so here are some data points from the Billy Napier Era:

• Florida is 5-5 in 2024
• Billy Napier is 16-19 as the head coach of Florida
• Four of his 16 wins have come against FBS teams who finished the season with a winning record
• Florida has the 28th-ranked recruiting class, according to 247 Sports

None of those are great when looking at the totality of the Billy Napier Era, but there seems to be a narrative that things are turning around after beating LSU 27-16 on Saturday.

But as history has shown us, if things are genuinely different and have turned around for Napier, a win over Ole Miss this weekend will be a much better indicator.

Florida Football: Moving on up

There has been a groundswell of support for Napier after beating LSU, and a narrative is brewing that things have turned around in Gainesville. Never mind that this is the same team that just fell behind Texas 42-0 the week before, the vibes in Florida are high.

LSU was an important win for Florida as they sought to demonstrate any proof of concept to fans and, more importantly, to recruits. The Gators are at least in the conversation for five-star receivers Dallas Wilson and Jamie Ffrench, as Napier pumps dreams of catches passes from DJ Lagway into their heads.

However, the reality is that LSU is now an unranked football team.

The other reality is that in the Billy Napier Era, we have watched Florida pick up a signature win, only to turn around and lay an egg.

As mentioned before, LSU was just the fourth team Napier has beaten to finish the year with a winning record. The following is what happened the game after the previous three wins over a team that finished the year with a winning record:

• Florida beat Utah in 2022, only to turn around and lose to Kentucky the following week.
• Florida also beat South Carolina in 2022, only to turn around and lose to Vanderbilt the following week.
• Last year, Florida beat Tennessee only to slog their way past UNC Charlotte (who just fired their coach) and then get steamrolled by Kentucky.

So, for Napier to prove anything has changed and we aren't just watching a film we have already seen play out multiple times under his regime, he will find a way to beat Ole Miss.

Not get the moral victory, not give us the "They played hard" platitudes, and not ask for a pat on the back because you covered the spread; Florida needs a straight-up win against Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.

The reality for Napier is that unless he wins out this season, he will fall short of eight wins.

That may sound trivial, but among the teams ranked last night in the top 25, 24 are led by a head coach who won at least eight games at that program within three years of being in charge (Eliah Drinkwitz being the odd man out).

So, for those who say, "Let Billy cook," we will just state there are plenty of college football chefs who have served gourmet meals in far less time.

Saturday is a great chance to show that Napier is actually a MasterChef and not just a candidate for Kitchen Nightmares.