The SEC Tournament gets underway this week, and Florida Basketball is without a doubt one of the favorites to leave Nashville with the trophy. The Gators are deep, can match up well with anyone, and have at least some motivation to win it all after losing in the tournament finals last year.
But the season for the Gators will ultimately be decided in the NCAA Tournament and just how much of a boost Florida would get from winning it all in Nashville is up for debate.
Florida Basketball: This Is March
For most Gator fans, anything short of making the Final Four is going to feel like a disappointment for this squad. Florida has shown that when they click, they can beat anyone in the country.
While the games in Nashville are bound to be intense, they won't necessarily predict who will make it to San Antonio for the Final Four.
Arkansas, and former Kentucky, head coach John Calipari made headlines this week when he stated “I don’t care about the conference tournament. Which is why we won it so many times because I could care less. The tournament that matters is the NCAA Tournament.”
Some may think he is being absurd, but the data backs him up that success in conference tournament doesn't automatically equate to success in the NCAA Tournament.
Over the past ten Final Fours, 21 of the 40 participants did not win their respective conference tournament that year. In addition, seven of the past ten national champions did not win their conference tournament.
Last year, NC State was the first ACC Tournament champion to make the Final Four since 2016. The SEC and Big Ten haven't had their tournament champion make it since 2019. In the Big 12, you would have to back to 2004 to find a team not named Kansas to win the Big 12 Tournament AND make it to the Final Four (Oklahoma State).
Now that means that 19 of the 40 teams did win their conference tournament, and 35 of the past 40 Final Four participants made at least the semifinals of their conference tournament, so there is a hint of correlation of needing to at least be competitive in Nashville if the goal is to make it to San Antonio.
But part of the reason there isn't a better correlation between winning your conference tournament and making it to the Final Four is that conference tournaments don't replicate any other scenario throughout the season. Outside of things like the Maui Invitational, nowhere else in the season are teams playing three games in three days.
Even during March Madness, teams play a game, take a day off, then play another game.
Plus, with the backdrop of March Madness looming, some teams don't have the same levels of desperation as others in their respective tournaments.
So, what does it all mean for the Gators?
In their quest for a number one seed, which will hold value in the NCAA Tournament, they need to avoid an upset in their opening game against either LSU, Mississippi State, or Missouri.
Beyond that, Florida should try to win the SEC Tournament for the sake of adding another banner to the collection.
But winning the tournament doesn't guarantee a ticket to San Antonio, and losing doesn't mean everyone should cancel their plans.