History shows it's not wise for Florida to save Billy Napier because of DJ Lagway

Over the past few days it was increasingly clear that the administration of the University of Florida was hell-bent on having Billy Napier return as head coach in 2025.

Yeah, he's 15-18, has beaten a grand total of three teams in his Gator career which finished the year with a winning record, and has a recruiting class ranked 51st in the country, but he's a nice guy.

Oh, and he has DJ Lagway.

And the insistence to keep Napier because of Lagway means the powers that be haven't bothered to study what happens when a single QB props up a coach.

Florida Football: Those That Don't Learn From History...

Florida AD Scott Stricklin announced today that Napier will be returning for the 2025 season no matter what happens the rest of the way in 2024.

Even though everyone seemed convinced Napier would get fired this year after the Texas A&M debacle, apparently beating 4-5 UCF and 3-6 Kentucky has been enough to convince the powers that be.

At the center of it all is DJ Lagway, who is seen as the future of the program, and the theory is that Napier should get to ride the storm out with his handpicked blue-chip QB.

As we wrote yesterday, the problem with this line of thinking is the reality that DJ Lagway can win without Billy Napier, but Billy Napier can't win without DJ Lagway.

Even if Florida goes on to win a national title with Lagway, that doesn't make Napier a great coach.

Confused?

Auburn won a national title with Cam Newton at the helm. Gene Chizik was fired two years later, popped up as the defensive coordinator at UNC, was fired, returned to UNC in 2022, and was fired again.

Likewise, LSU won a national title with Joe Burrow leading the way. Ed Orgeron was also fired two years later. Orgeron was 25-3 with Burrow as his QB and 42-45 as a head coach without Burrow.

If you want to see this phenomenon play out in real time, FSU was 29-9 when Jordan Travis was the starting QB. Mike Norvell is 3-16 at FSU in games with someone other than Travis starting at QB.

All three of these coaches were mid-tier coaches at best until a generational QB came along to shoot them to the moon. Once that QB left, they went right back to being a mid to low-tier coach, and in the case of Chizik and Orgeron, it's not an accident that a national title-winning coach can't find another head coaching gig.

Far too much empirical data showcases it doesn't take four years to build a winning program if you are a good coach. 18 of the 20 schools ranked in the top 20 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings are led by coaches who won at least eight games within two years at that program. Every program in the top 16 is led by a coach who won at least nine games within the first three years at that school.

Billy Napier is going to be fortunate if he can emerge from 2024 6-6, matching his best season in Gainesville.

Keeping Napier around with the expectation of Lagway bailing him out only showcases Scott Stricklin and crew are willing to enter 2025 with a house of cards for a foundation with the hope everything goes perfectly.

And since Stircklin has zero pulse for the fanbase, don't bother asking what the plan is when the slightest of scenarios go wrong.