Part of the fun of firing Billy Napier is the hopes and dreams Florida Gator fans have for a miracle in-season turnaround. UCLA has looked like a brand-new team since it fired its coach midseason, and UAB pulled off a massive upset over Memphis last week.
Even Arkansas has looked way more cagey since it made a coaching switch.
The actual season for Florida has more than likely been reduced to playing for pride, but if the Gators can catch lightning in a bottle and get some help, there is still a crazy pathway that keeps Florida alive for the SEC title.
So you're telling me there's a chance
Step one of this crazy scenario is that Florida needs to win out.
Is that likely? Of course not, and if Florida went 1-3 to close out SEC play, no one would bat an eye. But if Billy Gonzales trots out a new look offense and the defense continues to play well, anything is possible.
That would put Florida at 6-2 in SEC play, but they would still need a ton of help to actually make it to Atlanta.
Without diving into every individual game, the most realistic pathway to get to Atlanta is:
- Texas A&M loses three times
- Vanderbilt loses twice
- Missouri loses twice
- LSU loses once
- Alabama wins out
- Texas loses to Georgia but wins out otherwise
Ignoring that A&M losing three times and Texas winning out looks like a tall task, under this scenario, Alabama would be 8-0 and would go to Atlanta.
Then, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas would all be 6-2 while Vanderbilt, LSU, Missouri, and A&M would all be 5-3.
And in this scenario, since Florida would have head-to-head wins over all the other 6-2 teams, Florida would go to the SEC title game.
What makes Florida's chances of making it to Atlanta low, beyond the winning out part, is that if Vanderbilt, LSU, Missouri, or A&M also finish 6-2, then it triggers a different set of tie breakers that Florida would lose out on.
So don't book your tickets to Atlanta just yet, but it's more fun to dream than to totally give up.