Former Florida coach Dan Mullen may have a clearer playoff path than the Gators

There is an argument to be made that the Dan Mullen Era at Florida was just two or three years too soon for him to solidify his legacy in Gainesville. We know Mullen didn’t love recruiting, but the transfer portal could have given him a pathway to roster construction similar to the one Lane Kiffin mastered at Ole Miss. Mullen never made the playoffs at Florida, but he would have made it in 2019 and 2020 under the current 12-team setup, and he would have been on the bubble in 2018.

So there is a sense of irony that, even though Mullen was fired by Florida in 2021, he still might have a path to make the playoffs as a head coach before the Gators do.

Former Florida coach Dan Mullen picked to make the 2026 playoffs

Brad Crawford of CBS Sports made his playoff predictions for the 2026 season. He did not have Florida making it, which is fair enough, but he did have UNLV sliding in as the G6 representative. The Rebels are coming off a 10-2 regular season before losing the Mountain West title game to Boise State and then the Frisco Bowl to Ohio.

Boise State is now in the new-look Pac-12, and UNLV was picked 1st in the Mountain West preseason media poll.

Let’s play this out and pretend that UNLV emerges to represent the G6 in the 2026 playoffs. Does that validate Mullen and prove that Florida’s administration was wrong for letting him go?

The simple answer is no, no it doesn’t.

There has been a bit of revisionist history in both directions with the Dan Mullen Era. Because of how quickly it went south and how quickly Mullen went from a national title contender to a fired football coach, we have this tendency to skip over the fact that, of the 14 coaches in Florida history to lead the program for at least four seasons, Mullen has the third-best winning percentage all-time in Gainesville, and the 7th most wins all-time at Florida.

And quite frankly, the 2021 season was litteraly three plays away from being a 9-3 campaign instead of a 6-6 one.

But beyond having several poor macro-level decisions, one of the arguments we here at Hail Florida Hail have made since he was let go that Florida’s administration was in the right is that after getting fired, he sat in a TV studio for three years. Then, when he returned, he did so to UNLV.

James Franklin got back into a Power Four conference right away. Mark Stoops will be an assistant at Texas. Even Billy Napier opted to return to coaching right away.

UNLV is a great fit for Dan Mullen

But Mullen seemed content sipping margaritas by the pool. And let us make this clear: we, too, would pick sipping margaritas by the pool if given the choice. There is also a reason we are not the head coach of a college football team.

And let us be clear about this as well: UNLV is a perfect fit for Mullen.

He still isn’t recruiting. His class of 2026 had all three-stars and was ranked No. 61 in the country. His current class of 2027 is also all three-stars and is ranked No. 59. But when he can supplement with the transfer portal and go up against other programs that are also filled with nothing but two-stars and three-stars, he can let his strengths as an offensive guru shine through.

Depending on how 2026 goes for Mullen, there is a pathway for him to wind up back in the state of Florida, just this time in Tallahassee.

For his own sake, though, and knowing that vibes and culture matter to the coach as well, he seems happier and has a path to more success where he is now than he could achieve elsewhere.

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