Now that it seems the Florida Gators are forced to look elsewhere besides Lane Kiffin to hire a coach for 2026, Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has instantly popped up as the main name to keep an eye on. On the surface, Sumrall is a rising coach who has had nothing but success at the Group of Five level.
But Florida just had a G5 coach from Louisiana, and it didn't go well. But the data paints an even more bleak picture that Sumrall would have to overcome if he were to succeed at Florida.
American Conference coaches don't do well at the Power Four level
Without doing a deep dive on Sumrall specifically, the issue is that of the Power Four teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 heading into the final week of the regular season, only four of them are led by a head coach who came from the Group of Five as their previous stop.
And even on that list, Utah comes with an asterisk because it was considered a Group of Five at the time when Kyle Whittingham was promoted from within.
Ohio State (11–0)
- HC previous stop: Ohio State OC
- Level: P4
Indiana (11–0)
- HC previous stop: James Madison HC
- Level: G5
Texas A&M (11–0)
- HC previous stop: Duke HC
- Level: P4
Georgia (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Alabama DC
- Level: P4
Oregon (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Georgia DC
- Level: P4
Ole Miss (10–1)
- HC previous stop: FAU HC
- Level: G5
Texas Tech (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Baylor AHC
- Level: P4
Oklahoma (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Clemson DC
- Level: P4
Notre Dame (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Notre Dame DC
- Level: P4
Alabama (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Washington HC
- Level: P4
BYU (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Oregon State DC
- Level: P4
Vanderbilt (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Notre Dame DC
- Level: P4
Miami (FL) (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Oregon HC
- Level: P4
Utah (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Utah DC
- Level: G5
Michigan (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Michigan OC
- Level: P4
Texas (8–3)
- HC previous stop: Alabama OC
- Level: P4
Virginia (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Clemson OC
- Level: P4
Tennessee (8–3)
- HC previous stop: UCF HC
- Level: G5
USC (8–3)
- HC previous stop: Oklahoma HC
- Level: P4
James Madison (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Holy Cross HC
- Level: FCS
North Texas (10–1)
- HC previous stop: Washington State OC
- Level: P4
Tulane (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Troy HC
- Level: G5
Georgia Tech (9–2)
- HC previous stop: Georgia Tech AHC
- Level: P4
Pittsburgh (8–3)
- HC previous stop: Michigan State DC
- Level: P4
SMU (8–3)
- HC previous stop: Miami OC
- Level: P4
What about American Conference coaches?
The other knock on Sumrall is that he would have to pull off something almost no other American Conference coach has.
Since the inception of the conference in 2013, there have been almost zero success stories of a conference title-winning coach moving up to the Power Four and having a successful run:
2013 – UCF
- Head coach: George O'Leary
- New home: None
- Result: Resigned after 0–8 in 2015
2014 – Memphis
- Head coach: Justin Fuente
- New home: Virginia Tech
- Result: 43–31, fired in 2021
2014 – Cincinnati
- Head coach: Tommy Tuberville
- New home: None
- Result: Resigned in 2016 after 4–8
2014 – UCF
- Head coach: Same as 2013
- New home: (not listed)
- Result: (not listed)
(The AAC didn't start a conference title game until 2015, which led to a three-way tie in 2014)
2015 – Houston
- Head coach: Tom Herman
- New home: Texas
- Result: 32–18, fired after 2020
2016 – Temple
- Head coach: Matt Rhule
- New home: Baylor
- Result: 19–20, was 11–3 in 2019, left for NFL
2017 – UCF
- Head coach: Scott Frost
- New home: Nebraska
- Result: 16–31, fired after 2021
2018 – UCF
- Head coach: Same
- New home: (not listed)
- Result: (not listed)
2019 – Memphis
- Head coach: Mike Norvell
- New home: FSU
- Result: 38–33
2020 – Cincinnati
- Head coach: Luke Fickell
- New home: Wisconsin
- Result: 17–20
2021 – Cincinnati
- Head coach: Same as 2020
- New home: (not listed)
- Result: (not listed)
2022 – Tulane
- Head coach: Willie Fritz
- New home: Houston
- Result: 12–11
2023 – SMU
- Head coach: Rhett Lashlee
- New home: None
- Result: Still with the team, SMU moved to the ACC and made playoffs in 2024
2024 – Army
- Head coach: Jeff Monken
- New home: None
- Result: Still with the team, Army is 5–5 in 2025
Buyer beware, Florida, and may the odds forever be in your favor.