Lost in all the Lane Kiffin news is the fact that the Florida Gators are actually playing a game tonight against a bitter rival. It's Tennessee Week, but this has been among the most subdued Tennessee Weeks in modern history. The Kiffin drama doesn't help, but it also exists because this game is in November and not September, when hope still springs eternal.
The Gators do still have pride to play for and getting a win over a rival is always nice, but can Florida survive some good fortune it got away with the last two years?
Florida vs. Tennessee Final Odds
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Tennessee -4.5 | 56.5 Points | Tennessee -200 |
One thing we will say is that despite the dumpster fire of the past four years in Gainesville, the Gators have played Tennessee tough in the Billy Napier Era.
In 2022, they had a Hail Mary shot at the end of the game to win. In 2023, they stomped Tennessee at home in a game that made us think for a fleeting moment that Napier was the guy to get it done. Then last year, Napier blew it with an array of comical decisions as Florida lost in OT.
Florida's defense has seemingly had Tennessee's number the last two seasons, but there is a key caveat from those two games.
Both Joe Milton and Nico Iamaleava couldn't hit wide-open receivers deep down the field, and Florida survived numerous moments they probably shouldn't have.
Current Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar is far more accurate than those two, but he is also turnover-prone and could get tripped up in Florida, which opts for some of the simulated pressures they like to run.
In reality, the single biggest key to this game will be the potential return of Caleb Banks for Florida. Tennessee loves to spread teams out and then take advantage to gash them up the middle. If Banks can hold the line and force some third and longs, it could turn the tide for Florida.
Throw in that Tennessee's defense isn't as stout as some teams from the past, and as long as DJ Lagway can avoid his own turnover issues, the Gators might be able to keep pace.
One thing about the Billy Napier Era is that Florida tends to do well as a home underdog.
So with that in mind...