This time last week, we knew the Gators were not a perfect team, but we thought they were going to be able to overcome those problems to still beat Missouri. After all, the Gators were a 5.5-point favorite against Missouri.
Oops.
So we do have to temper our expectations a bit as Florida gets ready to take on a South Carolina squad that has plenty of problems of their own, while still having enough on-paper talent to cause some problems if Florida isn’t careful.
Florida looks to send Shane Beamer packing
- Spread: Florida -12.5
- Moneyline: Florida -490; South Carolina +360
- Over/under: 58.5 points
The irony of this matchup is that South Carolina has the highest 247 Talent Composite ranking of anyone the Gators have faced this year. Florida ranked No. 10 in the metric, and South Carolina is ranked No. 15. It highlights two truths about this matchup:
1. South Carolina has massively underperformed relative to their talent.
2. The Gamecocks have played well enough that they will catch you if you aren’t on your game.
The offense for South Carolina has put up some points this year, scoring at least 34 points in four of their five games. For as much focus as Gamecock QB LaNorris Sellers gets, it’s the run game for South Carolina that is the concern. South Carolina is 6th in rushing yards per game and 2nd in yards per rushing attempt, averaging 6.53 yards per carry.
The positive news for Florida is that their own rushing defense is at least a bit more competent than their passing defense, and this is where the fate of this game could be decided.
Unlike Missouri, South Carolina’s defense is awful. And the Gators have showcased over five weeks that they will punish an awful defense.If Florida can just provide any form of resistance this afternoon on defense, South Carolina’s defense shouldn’t be able to hold up if a shootout starts to unfold.
Last week scared us a bit, and so we don’t think Florida will cover the spread. But since the Gamecocks can’t stop anything themselves and are 125th in opposing QB rating, we still like the Gators to win this one:
Florida 41, South Carolina 31
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