Florida vs. Miami odds and predictions: Is this Billy Napier's last stand tonight?

Prior to the season, we viewed tonight's matchup against Miami as one we felt confident in for the Gators. Memories of Carson Beck, then with Georgia, throwing three interceptions were dancing in our heads, and we expected Florida's roster to match up with Miami across the board.

Problem is, we failed to take into account that Billy Napier is still the head coach of the Florida Gators. But if Florida has another meltdown tonight similar to what they had against Miami last season, it might be the last night Billy Napier is still the head coach of the Florida Gators.

Florida vs. Miami odds and predictions

Remember last year when Miami's defensive coordinator claimed they were able to predict the first ten plays Florida ran? That's a theme that still hasn't changed in Gainesville and is at the core of Florida's issues.

People have this notion that unless you call out the exact jargon used on a play, then you aren't "predicting the play."

We'll just state that USF and LSU were able to exploit well-known tendencies and route combinations that Napier is notorious for using to almost always be in a position to make a play.

Compounding Florida's issues on offense is the fact that its vertical game has been nonexistent. Last year, the Gators were able to overcome Napier's scheme once DJ Lagway got inserted because he was able to hit some deep shots that Graham Mertz never hit.

But Lagway has been a shell of himself this year, combined with Vernell Brown III being the only receiver creating problems.

Add in the fact that Caleb Banks won't be playing along the defensive line, and it's difficult to envision Florida's offense being able to keep pace with the Hurricanes.

And while Florida players played hard against LSU, the Gators have been prone to a "roll over dead" game every year in the Billy Napier Era (see Oregon State 2022, Kentucky 2023, and Texas 2024) on top of also having a straight up "let down" game every year (see Vanderbilt 2022, Arkansas 2023, Texas A&M 2024, and USF 2025).

If Florida has its "roll over dead" game, this could get ugly real fast.

If Carson Beck can melt down similarly to last season, then maybe Billy Napier has one last rabbit in the hat to pull out.