Florida has had an up-and-down season, to say the least. The Gators upset Ole Miss in Week 4, but dropped games to Missouri and South Carolina before upsetting Texas on the road.
In the last two weeks, the Gators offense has fallen flat in losses to Georgia and Oklahoma. Given how unpredictable this Jon Sumrall team has been all season, Saturday night's game between Florida and Kentucky seems a bit unpredictable. So it's not too surprising that the Las Vegas oddsmakers think this will be a close one.
Let's take a look at the final odds and prediction for Saturday night's matchup.
Florida travels to Lexington as a slight road underdog
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Kentucky -3
- Moneyline: Kentucky -155; Florida +130
- Over/under: 52.5 points
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
This line was 3.5 in favor of Kentucky earlier in the week, but has shifted ever so slightly to three points ahead of game day. Florida does not have a chance in this one if the offense looks as it did in the last two weeks.
Perhaps that's why there is some slight optimism that this one could be different, as Coach Sumrall has chosen to go back to Aaron Philo under center. If Philo can play more like he did earlier in the season, the Gators have a chance. Vernell Brown III is out once again, but the offense has been without him for more games than it had him.
In the beginning of the season, Philo managed a ground-heavy attack well. The Gators were also able to get chunk yardage in the air when they needed to, not to mention Philo is 14-of-26 on passes over 20 yards this season. He used his feet effectively if he needed to, too. Of course, we all saw the two first-half interceptions against Georgia, but the second pick-six was thanks to the ball bouncing off Eric Singleton Jr.'s hands.
Speaking of running the ball, another big key for Philo and Florida's offense against the Vols will be doing so effectively. Tennessee gave Florida the blueprint on how to do it last week, and Philo gives the Gators better pre-snap motion when he is under center. This could finally be the game where Jadan Baugh or Duke Clark get going again, as Kentucky's defense ranks 48th defending the run, giving up 127 yards on the ground per game.
Kentucky turned the ball over three times against Tennessee, and had 50 yards in penalties. Florida's defense has gotten rocked in recent weeks, and it will have a challenge going up against Kenny Minchey and the Wildcats' offense. The Gators could also play the role of CFP spoiler against Kentucky without much left to play for. While I'd love to see Florida pull off an upset here, unfortunately I think Kentucky has just played more consistently all year.
Hey, hopefully Florida can prove me wrong here.
Final Prediction:
- Kentucky 24, Florida 17
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