When the brackets came out last Sunday, Florida’s pathway to get out of Tampa and move on to Houston for the Sweet 16 felt very manageable. That feeling still hasn’t changed, and after dispatching Prairie View A&M in historic fashion, the Gators will get a slight step up in competition with Iowa.
And despite the fact that Iowa plays a style that could make things closer than Florida fans are going to want to experience, Vegas is firmly on the side that Florida shouldn’t be in too much danger with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Florida is a heavy favorite against Iowa
Florida is favored by 10.5 points against Iowa. To some extent, this feels a bit high as Iowa loves to grind out the shot clock, and they are a very efficient team when it comes to shooting the ball. The Hawkeyes are ranked 15th in the country in shooting efficiency and 20th in effective field goal percentage. And considering Florida was a 9.5-point favorite last year against a UConn squad that had a somewhat similar profile, there are reasons to be skeptical of the 10.5-point line.
But there is one massive difference between last year’s UConn squad and this year’s Iowa squad:
Iowa is not a good rebounding team, and they don’t defend the paint well. Last year’s UConn team was 1st in the country in block percentage and was in the top 20 in total rebounding rate. This year’s Iowa team is 319th in block percentage and 270th in two-point shooting percentage against.
As long as Florida can take care of the basketball and not give fast-break chances, there isn’t much of a pathway for Iowa to slow down Florida in the paint. Throw in the fact that Iowa commits a ton of fouls, and Florida’s sheer size has the potential to be a matchup nightmare for Iowa.
Yes, this is March, and anything is possible in March, but this would be a massive failure to bow out of the tournament at this stage.
We are going to predict Florida 83, Iowa 71.