Lost in all the chaos and drama of Florida missing out on Lane Kiffin, the Gators do have to play a game today to close out their 2025 season against FSU. Florida is trying to keep FSU from being bowl eligible, but outside of that, we expect The Swamp to be as toxic as ever.
Winning will still matter because this is a rivalry game after all, with the loser getting the title of the biggest dumpster fire in the state of Florida.
Florida vs. FSU: If we have to
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida -1.5 | 49.5 Points | Florida -115 |
Florida is terrible.
FSU is terrible.
There really isn't a need to do a deep dive analysis because this game is going to be won or lost purely on vibes and which teams actually show up wanting to win a game against their chief rival.
In Florida's case, we would imagine Billy Gonzales has enough pride to try to keep the ship together for today. The problem that has become evident since Billy Napier got fired is that Florida's staff is filled with mostly amateurs who will all be cast aside from the Power Four after today and won't be heard from again in a long, long time.
On paper, Florida does have a talent advantage. FSU QB Thomas Castellanos has had accuracy issues in the last five games that would even make DJ Lagway go "Yeah... not good." But Castellanos is a willing runner who should be able to pick up a handful of first downs with his legs.
It really just comes down to two things:
- Can Jadan Baugh pick up 96 yards to become Florida's first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015?
- Can Ron Roberts pretend to give a crap?
The latter is really the great unknown in this game. Ever since Napier has been fired, Roberts has gone back to his "sit-back" defense that begs opponents to pick up 10 yards on every play.
We'll watch this game because we are all masochists at heart, but that doesn't mean it is going to be quality football that anyone will feel good about.
And given the state of both teams when it comes to a coach for 2026, whoever wins today still really isn't a winner.