Two weeks ago, Florida Baseball was dead as Vanderbilt swept the Gators to fall to 1-11 in SEC play. A win over FSU, combined with a sweep over Missouri and two wins over Mississippi State, was part of a seven-game winning streak that has pulled Florida to 6-12 in SEC play and 27-15 overall.
Bracketology for the NCAA Baseball Tournament is still all over the map, where some think Florida is on the plus side of the bracket while others think there is still work to do for the Gators to get in.
Florida Baseball on the bubble
On3 came out with their Field of 64 and has Florida as one of the "Last Four In". College Baseball Central has Florida out and has the Gators among the "Next Four Out."
Prior to the Mississippi State series, D1Baseball not only had the Gators out, but they didn't even have them as teams on the bubble.
Florida does have plenty of metrics working in its favor. Florida is ranked 5th in strength of schedule, 24th in RPI, has five Quad One victories, and is one of just 22 teams nationwide that don't have a loss against a Quad Four opponent.
But emblematic of the struggles the Gators have had this season against better competition, their record of 5-14 against Quad One opponents is one of the worst winning percentages among teams in the top 50 of overall RPI.
Above all else, what seems to be holding Florida back when it comes to Bracketology is their 6-12 record against the SEC, where five of those wins have come against Missouri and Mississippi State, ranked last and 3rd to last in the SEC, respectively.
Conventional wisdom seems to think that Florida will need to reach 12 SEC wins in order to get an at-large bid, meaning Florida has to go 6-6 in SEC play to close out the regular season.
The Gators have Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas, and Alabama to close out SEC play. The most realistic pathway is to win the South Carolina series, find a way to win two out of three from any of the other series, and avoid getting swept in any of their series.