After three straight blowout victories, the Florida Gators appear to be back on track for the 2025-26 season. On paper, however, they will face their toughest state within the SEC on Saturday when Florida travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt. The No. 10 Commodores were undefeated before suffering a blowout loss to Texas earlier in the week.
Despite Florida’s surge and Vanderbilt’s loss, our highly unofficial Hail Florida Hail computer model likes Vanderbilt to win this game 82-78.
In order for Florida to emerge with the win, these are the three keys the Gators will have to control on the road.
Florida must win the offensive glass by 10+ rebounds
Spoiler alert:
Florida is an elite offensive rebounding team.
Among the things that caused Vanderbilt problems against Texas was that Vanderbilt didn’t control the glass like they normally do on the defensive end. The Commodores are a top 40 defensive rebounding team, but didn’t look like it against the Longhorns.
Throw in the fact that Vanderbilt themselves don’t collect a ton of offensive rebounds and if Florida can get 15+ offensive rebounds, it could be a long day for Vanderbilt.
Control Vanderbilt’s three-point shooting
Another spoiler alert:
Florida can’t shoot threes.
In spurts, it has gotten better, but the Gators still haven’t found consistent shooting from range this season. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, isn’t elite, but they are more than competent enough to hit open shots from deep.
If Florida can hold Vanderbilt to under 35% shooting from three, the Gators will have to like their chances.
Protect the ball
We have highlighted it before, but Florida’s biggest issue beyond the three-point shooting has been turnovers. The Gators are averaging 12.6 turnovers per game and are 236th in the country in this category. Vanderbilt is 29th.
If Florida can keep their turnovers to 10 or under, it will be a good sign. Anything 15 or over probably means a Vanderbilt win.