We are getting closer and closer to finding out whether Florida is going to be the winner in the Lane Kiffin Sweepstakes. The Gators have been pursuing Kiffin hard, but there has been a massive juxtaposition in the way Florida has approached the process compared to how LSU has approached it.
And with betting odds favoring LSU landing Kiffin, it makes one wonder if Florida's quiet approach is a sign of confidence to pull off the great heist or if it's a sign of trouble in paradise.
Florida is the betting underdog to land Lane Kiffin
As it stands right now, LSU is considered a -175 favorite to land Kiffin. Florida is a +125 underdog, and Ole Miss is a distant +600.
Betting odds for things like this are often framed by public perception, and there has been a ton of public smoke trying to connect Kiffin with LSU.
But what is interesting is that you aren't hearing a peep publicly about Florida one way or the other. LSU leaked their contract offer while Florida did not. LSU insiders have been boisterous about claiming the Tigers are getting Kiffin, while Florida insiders have said next to nothing in the past week. LSU fans have gone on a complete roller coaster of emotions, while Florida fans have stuck to a "we move in silence" approach.
Based on how this has played out in public, there are ways one can convince oneself of how Kiffin could wind up at either LSU or Florida.
The case for Florida
Keeping in mind that every piece of information that gets "leaked" out is intentional, members of Kiffin's family traveled to Gainesville last week. Then word got out that Florida was going to interview Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, but that was then immediately backtracked.
While that smoke was still simmering, Florida and Kiffin met on Thursday, which got leaked out on Friday. Shortly after that piece of news came out, the Ole Miss AD put out a statement that Kiffin would make a decision after the Egg Bowl, and conveniently, that night, the details of LSU's offer were leaked.
If you want to be in the pro-Florida camp, Kiffin decided that Thursday he was taking the Florida job, will announce it after the Egg Bowl, and the LSU offer was their way of letting their fans know "Don't blame us, we put forth a great offer."
Keep in mind the same insiders swearing LSU has an advantage are the same insiders who swore Florida was being "ghosted" by Kiffin.
Also LSU continues to be a mess from the Brian Kelly fallout.
The case for LSU
There has been next to zero positive news indicating momentum for Florida. Now, almost all of Florida's insiders and wanna be insiders all seem to think that Florida's camp feels really good about where they stand with Kiffin.
But this is Scott Stricklin we are talking about, who has botched almost every single hire he has made in Gainesville. Florida insiders have seemingly indicated they have info they aren't allowed to say, but this also could be a Stricklin ploy to temper expectations so they can pivot to someone like Jon Sumrall or Eli Drinkwitz.
Because even though it is easier to win at Florida than it is at Ole Miss, it is arguably easier to win at LSU than it is at Florida. Kiffin would have an entire state to himself for recruiting purposes and would have more than enough resources to complete.
Throw in that nearly every non-Florida insider seems to think Kiffin is going to LSU, and someone is going to be really wrong when this is over.
Final verdict
Who knows what's going to happen. Even the most confident of sources have had to stop short of confidence because they feel Kiffin could change his mind at any point.
What we do know is that anything short of Kiffin, given how long this saga has gone on, is going to be a massive letdown for a ton of Gator fans.
If Florida pulls off Kiffin, Stricklin might get to save his legacy in Gainesville.
If LSU pulls off Kiffin, Stricklin will have no one to blame but himself.