![Florida honors the flag before an NCAA baseball game at Condron Family Ballpark at Alfred A. McKethan Field in Gainesville, FL on Friday, April 24, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2788,h_1568/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/production/213/01ksst22mvmw98jwx2pg.jpg "Florida honors the flag before an NCAA baseball game at Condron Family Ballpark at Alfred A. McKethan Field in Gainesville, FL on Friday, April 24, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
Florida is set to get its NCAA Tournament run underway on Friday with a 1 PM start time against Rider. If things go well for the Gators, Florida could be playing deep into June. A bad 24 hours, and Florida’s season could be done by Saturday afternoon.
There are a ton of factors that could contribute to Florida’s success or failure, and these are the key storylines we are going to keep an eye on this weekend.
How deep will Russell Sandefer go against Rider?
Last year, Florida’s run in the NCAA Tournament was basically derailed from the first pitch as Liam Peterson only lasted 1.1 innings, and everything went south from there. This year Kevin O’Sullivan is opting to throw Russell Sandefer to open things against Rider rather than Peterson or Aidan King.
In theory, Florida should still be fine. But, it is a gamble, and if things implode for Sandefer there is bound to be second-guessing that O’Sullivan didn’t take the sure thing.
Can Florida field the ball against Rider?
One of the hidden factors with Florida’s matchup with Rider is that the Broncos don’t strike out a ton. Rider had the 30th fewest strikeouts in all of college baseball.
That could come into play if Rider is able to put the ball in play against Florida, as we know Florida’s fielding woes were a massive reason why they looked lost back in March and April. Going back to last year’s loss to ECU, a massive problem was that Florida couldn’t field the ball.
How much will the weather impact the weekend?
So if you haven’t checked the weather, it is supposed to rain in Gainesville this weekend.
Like, a lot.
And so, another hidden storyline is if Florida can beat Rider, will Troy vs. Miami game be forced to go deep into the night on Friday?
And then with the rain threat on Saturday, is that going to impact how Florida approaches its pitching situation, and is there a pathway where Peterson or King gets burned due to rain?
Party like it’s 2016
Here is one thing to keep in mind as the weekend progresses:
Florida hasn’t gone 3-0 in a Regional since 2016.
Even when Florida made their runs to the CWS in 2017, 2018, 2023, and 2024, they dropped a game along the way and were forced into the Monday winner-take-all game.
However, in all four of those runs, Florida did win their opening game.
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