Florida is going on the road to take on the Kentucky Wildcats this week, in desperate need for a bounceback win. The Wildcats are off to a great start to the season, at 7-2 and with a shot at the College Football Playoff.
The Gators are 5-4, and need one more win to even reach bowl eligibility. Florida has historically struggled playing Kentucky on the road in recent years. Florida's last win on the road against Kentucky came in 2019, during Dan Mullen's first season in Gainesville.
The Gators recent games against the Wildcats also haven't been particularly close. In fact, in the last seven meetings, with the exception of the 2021 Kentucky-Florida game that was vacated, the average margin of victory on average is 18.7 points.
Why 2026's edition of the Kentucky-Florida rivalry might be closer
The spread for Saturday night's game in Lexington has Kentucky as a 3.5-point favorite, with the over/under at 52.5. ESPN Analytics has the Wildcats also as a slight favorite, giving Kentucky a 53.8% chance to win compared to Florida's 46.2%.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
Florida DT Jeramiah McCloud returns from suspension against Kentucky
There's no question that Florida's offense has gone downhill in recent weeks. In the last two games, it has yielded just 15 points. But if Florida can figure some things out offensively this week, the Gators could be in business. Kentucky's defense checks in 76th overall in total defense, and is tied for 75th in scoring defense. Per ESPN's S&P+, Kentucky's defense is ranked 44th.
"They're just sound, Sumrall said of Kentucky's defense this week. "I think they play with a really high football IQ. They don't beat themselves. They do a great job communicating. I think what they see from their offense, too, prepares them for a lot because they do a lot offensively from a picture standpoint. They're a little bit more veteran than you probably recognize or give them credit for. I feel like Ty Bryant, the safety, I feel like he's been there for like eight years now. He's a good player. But they're just – they've got what looks like a really good idea of what they're trying to do each snap, and they make you earn it."
The one thing Florida can't do on offense against Kentucky is turn the ball over. The Wildcats have gained 18 turnovers this season, including 12 interceptions. That's a bit scary for whoever starts at quarterback for Florida under center, as Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones have thrown a combined five interceptions in the last two weeks.
The last time Florida defeated Kentucky in Lexington in 2019 was actually one of the closer games, with the Gators getting a 28-21 victory. That was the game Kyle Trask came off the bench for an injured Feleipe Franks at quarterback, and threw for 126 yards and had a four-yard rushing touchdown that gave Florida a go-ahead 22-21 lead.
If Florida wants to upset Kentucky on the road, the game might have to be a close one if the Gator offense wants to stay within striking distance.
ALSO READ: Who is Florida's starting quarterback against Kentucky? Even Jon Sumrall isn't sure
Add us as a preferred source on Google