If Florida ran up the score anymore against Prairie View A&M on Friday night, the Gators might have looked to the viral fan in the stands to see if he wanted to play at all. Todd Golden unloaded his bench far sooner than he normally does, and no one on Florida’s roster played more than 25 minutes.
So winning by the second-largest margin in NCAA Tournament history and getting guys rest is an advantage heading into Sunday’s matchup with Iowa. But if history is any guide, Friday’s win could either be the start of a national title run or could be fool’s gold that has Florida out of the tournament by Sunday night.
Florida makes history in win over Prairie View A&M
Florida’s 59-point win puts them behind only Loyola’s 1963 win of 69 points for the largest win in NCAA Tournament history. Loyola would go on to win the national title that season. In fact, there have been 36 previous games in March Madness history where a team has won by at least 40 points. Seven of those teams went on to win the national championship during that tournament, including the 2007 Gators, who beat Jackson State 112-69.
21 of the 36 teams that won a game by at least 40 points went on to make the Final Four that same year.
So on paper, Florida’s massive victory would seem like a good omen to at least book tickets to Indianapolis for the 2026 Final Four.
But there are some ominous examples from history where winning huge in your opening game leads to a faceplant in the very next round. The team Florida surpassed for the number two spot on the largest wins list, the 1998 Kansas Jayhawks, went on to lose its next game in the second round to Rhode Island. This was after Kansas had won its opening game by 58 points, also over Prairie View.
In 1986, Syracuse beat Brown by 49 points to open its NCAA Tournament run. That run would end in the second round with a loss to Navy.
Translation:
Historically, teams that win a game by at least 40 points make it to the Final Four 58% of the time. But that also leaves a 42% chance that Florida’s opening win becomes a mere footnote in history. Because even if Florida won by one point on Friday or by 100, they still have five wins to go to reach their ultimate goal.