If we look back a year ago, the over/under win total for Florida was set at 6.5 to 7.5 wins, depending on the sportsbook. Based on the expectations the Gators had coming off their win streak to end 2024, combined with the hopes and dreams of DJ Lagway being at the helm, this felt like free money to some to take the over.
There is a reason why they build skyscrapers in the desert.
So heading into 2026, there is nowhere for Florida to go but up and be one of the rebound teams of the year.
Frankly, anything short of being one of the rebound teams of the season would be a massive disappointment.
Florida tabbed one of the rebound teams of the 2026 season
CBS Sports put out a list of “College Football’s Rebound Teams” for the 2026 season. Essentially, the list just looked at teams that had low win totals in 2025 and compared them with their over/under win total from Vegas for the 2026 season.
Of Florida, who has an over/under win total of 7.5 wins in 2026, they said:
“If the Gators are able to hit the over on their projected win total with eight regular-season victories, it would be the first time in six years that they have reached that mark. Even with the juice on the under, those are lofty expectations for first-year coach Jon Sumrall in Gainesville. The jump from the Group of Six to the SEC is significant -- just ask Billy Napier how that went. But Sumrall has built a résumé few first-year SEC coaches can match, averaging 9.75 regular-season wins over four seasons at Troy and Tulane.”
First off, the fact that Florida hasn’t won at least eight games in a single season over the past five years is almost unfathomable in the modern era. Hell, Florida has only won seven games in a single season once in that stretch.
But second, we would push back on the notion that an 8-4 regular season is a lofty expectation for Jon Sumrall in year one. This is Florida, not Arkansas or Mississippi State. If eight wins is a lofty expectation with the resources available in Gainesville, then this is not the job for you.
Because the thing we kept pounding during the Billy Napier Era is that in the modern era of college football, one can turn around a roster overnight and prove they are the guy right away. Napier never did that, and it’s why it quickly became apparent that his vision of a multi-year rebuild was flawed.
The irony is that Napier left behind a mostly competitive roster and when you go game-by-game with Florida’s schedule, the Gators are probably considered favorites in eight of their twelve games right now.
8-4 is the acceptable floor for Sumrall in 2026, not some cause for celebration.
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