Heading into the noon kickoff against Ole Miss, we are 7-3 on the year correctly picking the winner for Florida Football games in 2024. In fact, last week was the first week since the Mississippi State game we missed picking the correct winner, in large part because we didn't account for the defensive line having a field day on what was a solid LSU offensive line prior to the game.
So it is with that backdrop we don't have a great feel for what is actually going to happen in The Swamp because there is logic, then there is hope, then there is logic to back up the hope, then there is the ominous backdrop to undo that hope.
Florida Football: Let's do it again
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Ole Miss -11.5 | 55.5 points | Ole Miss -430/Florida +330 |
Let's just start with pure logic: Jaxson Dart has the best metrics of any SEC QB the Gators have faced this season. Of the 15 QBs in the SEC with at least 150 dropbacks, he has the best completion percentage at 70.6%. He has the best completion percentage despite the fact he also has the highest ADOT (average depth of target) in the SEC.
So, for all the good vibes of Florida's defense after LSU, the Gators have benefitted when opposing QBs start missing wide-open receivers; see Nico Iamaleava or Carson Beck as exhibit A.
But the hope is that DJ Lagway is up for the task of keeping Florida in it even if this game turns into a shootout. One of the counter-arguments as to why Florida looked so lifeless against Texas was because Lagway was out and that as long as he is in the game, the Gators feel like they have a chance.
We don't love that argument, but the logic to that argument is that Florida is 3-0 in games Lagway has started and finished. He is also the most accurate deep ball thrower in the country in 2024, and on paper Ole Miss is presented with two choices:
- Back off with Cover 4 or Cover 6, which in turn will lighten up the box for Jadan Baugh and Ja'Kobi Jackson to run wild.
- Load up the box like LSU did at times and get burned over the top.
Add in the fact that Florida's defense line has seven sacks against an LSU offensive line that had only given up six sacks all season prior to last week, and one can start to paint a picture of how Florida could in fact win this game.
But this brings us to the logic to run against the hope:
- Jaxson Dart can scramble far better than Carson Beck or Garrett Nussmeier.
- For all the talk about how great the offensive line played last week, they still allowed seven hurries. And Princely Umanmielen (yeah, that Princely Umanmielen) has had two sacks in each of his last three games.
- Ole Miss is coming off a bye week, while Florida has yet to prove they can string multiple wins together in the Billy Napier Era.
There is a reason they build skyscrapers in the desert, and Vegas has this game at 11.5 points spread even with DJ Lagway playing.
For that reason, we are predicting: