Florida Football vs LSU: Final odds and predictions

Last week, in our prediction for Florida, we said that the Gators would score 17 points against Texas. Well, at least we got that part right as it is best not to look at how far off we were on how many points the defense would give up.

It's with that in mind that while we think we have any idea of how Saturday might go against LSU, there are still some wildcards that could sway this game one way or the other.

Florida Football: Tiger King

DJ Lagway is slated to play, and that alone gives Florida hope. Just the mere threat of the deep ball can back off LSU's secondary to enable Florida to not have to run into eight or nine man boxes the entire game.

Add in the fact that LSU is not an elite pass defense, ranking 86th in yards per pass against, and there is a pathway we could see a couple of deep shots to Elijhah Badger to get some momentum rolling. Florida has a ton of top-rated prospects in The Swamp, which will probably influence an early deep shot regardless of the down and distance.

But there is one cautionary stat that could slow down Florida's offense. LSU is 4th in the country in sack percentage, bringing down the QB on 10.6% of passing attempts. They are also averaging about five more QB pressures per game than Florida. Combine that with the fact that Lagway probably isn't going to be able to scramble much because of his hamstring and it wouldn't shock us to see LSU dial up the pressure early.

Then there is the question of which version of Florida's defense we will get. The Gators had a good three-week stretch from UCF, Tennessee, and Kentucky, but UCF and Kentucky are not the best measuring sticks, and Florida was fortunate Nico Iamaleava missed wide-open receivers for touchdowns.

Bad QB play is a similar reason why Florida was able to hold Georgia at bay for a half, but since coming out of halftime in Jacksonville the Gators have given up 77 points in six quarters of play. If you are keeping score at home that's 12.8 points per quarter.

Compounding Florida's problems is a banged-up secondary that is about to face an LSU squad that throws the ball 61% of the time versus running it 39%, the 5th highest passing rate in the country.

So I think Florida is going to have a couple of moments of glory, but like so many Florida vs. LSU games in recent history, there is going to be something that holds Florida back from reaching the finish line.

We are going to keep saying what we have said all year about Billy Napier: Until you have done it, you haven't done it.

For that reason, we are predicting an LSU win: